Archive for April, 2009

Where do all those local online ad dollars disappear to?

Thursday, April 30th, 2009

If you’ve read our latest report, there’s a chart that may have raised an eyebrow. It shows our projections for local online ad spending out through 2013. The obvious takeaway is that we expect it to level off and then start declining. Does this mean the Web is dying?

Not hardly, as they say. Local advertisers are beginning to discover what national advertisers are already exploiting: the Web’s ability to foster direct, one-on-one relationships between businesses and prospective customers. Companies are beginning to move money out of advertising per se and into things like contests and sweepstakes. Properly designed, these can deliver contact information (e-mail addresses and more) for hundreds of viable local prospects.

The key point is that the business can then re-market to those prospects in a variety of ways – without having to go through an advertising medium to reach them.

National companies have known for years that the Web is really about database marketing. The tools and techniques that they developed are becoming cheaper and simpler, to the point where small businesses can begin to take more control of their own marketing destiny. And it’s not that Mom ‘n Pop have to learn the intricacies of SQL and CAN-SPAM – there are tons of vendors renting their expertise who can get this job done with a decent ROI.

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Media, City.com owners should talk

Tuesday, April 28th, 2009

I addressed the GeoDomain Expo last Saturday in San Diego and was struct how disconnected these local entrepreneurs were with the concerns of traditional media. They are people like Dan Pulcrano, who owns a few dozen primo domains such as SanFrancisco.com, Chicago.com, and Dallas.com, and guys like Mike Mannix, who with his wife runs Albany.com and Saratoga.com.

After I gave an inspirational lunchtime speech encouraging them to think big and to not squander their Park Place and Boardwalk properties, I sat in my hotel room and listened to a domain auction out on the lawn near Mission Bay. Minneapolis.net went for $6,250, BrooklynJobs.com went for $8,000, and LasVegasLights.com went for $4,500. But there were no takers for Longhorn.com (the opening bid was $35,000) and Carlsbad.com, a community near San Diego.

It struck me that these wide-eyed, generally inexperienced entrepreneurs are holding the deeds to small goldmines. They possess a prime slice of land but lack the experience and finesse to tap them.

It also struck me that no traditional media players were in attendance.

If only there were a way to match the two.

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Churn Rates for Search Marketing

Thursday, April 23rd, 2009

We’ve just completed some research on churn rates for Search Engine Marketing resellers, and it sure looks like this red-hot industry is about to implode.

First off, companies like Yodle and Local.com saw gangbuster growth last year with their “direct” programs selling SEM to advertisers. Yodle saw 700% growth, surpassing $20 million, and Local.com saw 71%, approaching $40 million. Even Yellowbook.com, a big reseller of search advertising, saw triple-digit growth last year (113%), surpassing $200 million in interactive sales.

So what’s the problem? It’s become a gold rush. There’s a whole cottage industry of what I suspect to be former Amway salespeople peddling SEM through some of the resellers like WebVisible, Marchex and ReachLocal. They’re damaging the industry by selling “buckets of clicks,” driving up the pricetag to advertisers to make their profits and disregarding the fact that click fraud runs anywhere from 17% to 28%.

Churn rates look to be at least 50% for some of the best, and close to 90% for many. Advertisers are dropping like flies because they’re being sold clicks, not results, or aren’t getting the level of care they need. If the industry doesn’t take this bull by the horns and force some reform, the resellers could ruin an otherwise viable lead-generation channel.

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Advertisers love newspapers…on certain days

Friday, April 17th, 2009

When newspapers start cutting the number of days they publish, what happens to the dollars advertiser would have spent there? Saving this money is a tempting option, but as Henry Ford said, “Cutting your advertising to save money is like stopping your watch to save time.”

We did a little research to see what advertisers in Detroit, Ann Arbor and Seattle might be thinking as the newspapers there either stop publishing or cut back on the days they publish. Speaking with several advertisers this past week, it is apparent that a lot depends on which days the newspaper eliminates. Thursdays, Saturdays and Sundays may prove to be important to the businesses. This is likely to make the advertisers keep their budget the same for their newspaper advertising endeavors. (At least that’s what they’re telling us.) In Ann Arbor, the big advertising days will remain intact. One real estate advertiser in Ann Arbor said he would spend the same amount of money with the umbrella company of the Ann Arbor News, be it in print or online. The main reason was that publication days coincide with when he typically advertises. Similarly, a Detroit car dealership plans to invest leftover dollars in the Detroit Free Press’s online product. “It’s still a viable advertising opportunity,” he told us.

While businesses will continue investing in whatever product the newspaper has to offer, others are not so eager. A real estate agent in Ann Arbor told us he’s moving away from print and toward online initiatives. Therefore, any money left from newspaper spending will go to different areas of online. We received a similar answer from another real estate company in Detroit that plans to put a small portion of what they would have spent with the newspaper toward online, and save the rest.

Overall, the consensus is that these advertisers are planning to invest more dollars in the Web and save whatever else they can.

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Why some local news outlets are failing

Saturday, April 11th, 2009

The news last week that WYOU-TV in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., shut down its local newscast underscores the fact that the real problem in local markets is that media outlets are oversupplying their communities with local “news.” The deluge of edited, polished local news is causing newspapers to shut down or cut back, and is now beginning to cause some of the third-rated TV newscast in many markets to fade to black while people’s attention is diverted toward a more interesting “W-YOU” – things like YouTube, Facebook and Myspace.

Don’t get me wrong — local news has its followers, and the audience is massive for newspapers and TV stations. In fact, the Internet’s hasn’t put a dent in people’s preference for getting local news from TV and newspapers. TV still remains the #1 source, and newspapers the #2, according to Pew Research. The percentage of adults getting news from those two legacy sources hasn’t changed much since the Internet came along. It’s just that people only want so much local news. A second major newspaper or a third TV station offering local news is about as useful as the left back pocket on your pants.

I’m still amused at the rush to put local news online, and the saber-rattling from publishers who threaten to charge for access to local news. Go ahead, charge for access to those stories. You’ll soon find what WYOU found – that there are many other (free) outlets for local news, and that someone else has already figured out that it’s not about YOU, it’s about THEM.

(See the story in Broadcasting & Cable )

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Impact of the Economic Crisis

Monday, April 6th, 2009

The chief executive of a major newspaper company made a profound statement last week. He said he believed the economic crisis was having a positive impact on the business, in that “the number of players will diminish, but the strongest players may be stabler after the crisis.”

The statement came from Mathias Döpfner, who heads the German publisher Axel Springer.

Remarkable things are happening in Europe, where Springer reported its highest profit in its 62-year history. At other European publishers, the Internet delivers about 25% of the revenue (as opposed to about 7% in The States), and one Norwegian newspaper Web site rivals Google as the most popular in the country.

Is this a purely European phenomenon, or are there lessons to be learned in The States?

Europe is more than 20 countries, almost none of which speaks the same language and few have populations larger than a mid-size American state. To compare them with the U.S. and its newspaper challenges is unhelpful. But what this story does underscore is that while the newspaper business model is highly stressed, it isn’t broken.

Indeed, in the history of modern media – the last century, say – no medium has ever been killed off by another. Newspapers still have a strong value proposition – delivered to your doorstep, pre-packaged and convenient, lightweight, disposable, and NOT dependent on electricity to read – perfect for the breakfast table, sitting on a plane, relaxing on the beach. The dying off of dozens of evening newspapers back in the 1970s and 1980s didn’t signal a death knell either.

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The Next Wave: Real Estate Partnerships

Thursday, April 2nd, 2009

On Wednesday, April 1, real estate Web site Zillow.com announced plans to launch co-branded real estate Web sites with 180 newspapers. The Zillow-powered Web sites will feature Zillow’s search functionality and feature content from Zillow such as advice, mortgage rates and other information. Newspaper sales teams will sell featured listings and premiere advertising inventory on the co-branded sites powered by Zillow.

I applaud the partnership, but it should have happened years ago. I’ve been watching the real estate vertical for over 10 years and launched the first newspaper/MLS partnership online back in 1999. Even back then I realized that of all the verticals this was the one that was going to get away from newspapers — even the newspapers online offerings were not going to be of much use. The vertical is too complex, extremely sophisticated and tightly controlled for anyone but pure-play operations to succeed. For a real estate site to thrive it needs a national presence, deep pockets and the very best of technology. And a damn good hook.

Both Zillow and Trulia have been able to leap forward in the vertical due to technological achievements and clever user-tools. They first and foremost built sites that were consumer focused. The ad model is now evolving and growing as newspapers realize they don’t own the verticals anymore.

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