Archive for May, 2009

Are we NUTS?

Friday, May 29th, 2009

We’ve had lots of questions about our numbers for email advertising — $12 billion – being wildly higher than other tracking companies’ numbers. For instance, the Interactive Advertising Bureau, through Price Waterhouse, is reporting less than $500 million for e-mail. Are we nuts?!

If you give me 60 seconds, I’ll tell you a fascinating secret that underlies why many media companies severely underestimate the Internet advertising opportunity – and why those who understand this phenomenon suddenly become empowered to change their companies.

In the legacy media world, it’s very easy to track advertising expenditures. The methodology involves looking at all the revenues from the major daily newspaper in a market, or all the companies that hold FCC broadcast licenses. There are usually three or four TV stations that get all the revenues, so BINGO! there’s how much is being spent on TV. So when you use that methodology to track Internet advertising, you get a handful of “known” entities and – BINGO – there’s your number!

Can anyone name all the companies selling e-mail advertising? More than three?

Here’s the difference with our methodology: We track spending, not revenues. That is, we know from various records and surveys what businesses spend on e-mail advertising, and we calculate from the bottom up. We do the same for all advertising, and our numbers wind up pretty much the same for traditional media, but very different for Internet advertising.

With the Internet, however, you can’t fathom the universe of companies and individuals selling things like email advertising or search advertising or banners. In a lot of cases, they aren’t even companies, but individuals who don’t have business licenses and thus cannot be tracked at all for their “ad revenue” receipts.

The amount advertisers are spending is truly stunning, and much larger than most people imagine. Those who understand the true breadth of opportunity are more likely (in my humble opinion) to get a larger share than those who underestimate it.

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100 pounds of advertising, in the trash

Wednesday, May 20th, 2009

Outtakes from our report on direct mail: While ecology-minded people rail about unused phonebooks and dying forests, we calculated that the average household receives about 200 pounds of junk mail per year. Meanwhile, the average phonebook weighs about 4 pounds. Because half of all adults neither use their junk mail nor open their phone books, that means 100 pounds per household of wasted paper and 2 pounds of wasted phone books.

Here’s another tidbit: A lobbying group has formed (probably from former tobacco lobbyists) claiming that junk mail is actually good for the environment. They call it “advertising mail.” It saves gas and reduces traffic jams. No lie! Check out www.mailmovesamerica.org.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m all for advertising. It’s educational and entertaining, and it floats all media boats. But it’s time we started putting things into perspective. The direct mail industry doesn’t have much of a face, as we described in our latest report. There’s no big brand name or no TV, radio or newspaper promotion behind it. It just slips into the mailbox every day. And, if you’re like my wife, the first stop between the mailbox and the door is the trash can, where most of it winds up.

There’s too much waste in advertising. It’s giving the industry a bad name. Every advertiser feels like John Wanamaker, the department store magnate who believed that half of his advertising worked and half of it didn’t – and he didn’t know which half was which. If the Internet fulfills its promise of delivering greater advertising efficiency, I am hoping it wraps its digital tentacles around direct mail and squeezes hard.

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Publishers and blacksmiths

Thursday, May 14th, 2009

I just read that The Denver Post and The Detroit News, along with other MediaNews newspapers, will start charging for content on the Web. I am relieved that so many publishers have finally realized that they’re in the newspaper business, not the Internet business.

I suppose publishers now know how blacksmiths felt 100 years ago when they refused to assist automobile drivers who needed water for an overheated radiator or help repairing a bent axel. At the time, people saw a blacksmith as someone who could help with transportation needs – horses and buggies. Blacksmiths’ refusal to help people who drove Tin Lizzies did nothing whatsoever to save the horseshoe, horse and buggy business. What it did was prevent blacksmiths from foreseeing a more lucrative business in becoming auto-repair shops.

The fact is, people won’t pay much to access local news online. Our research shows that it’s neither compelling nor valuable enough for consumers to pay more than $1 per month. There’s just too much of it floating around, and it’s really not in that “gotta have it” information category. Charging actually makes sense, if you’re squarely in the “newspaper” business.

The toll-gating of local newspaper content, in my humble opinion, won’t mount to a hill of beans either way. It won’t increase print circulation, and it won’t bring new riches to newspapers. For publishers, however, it will indeed do one thing: It’ll relieve them of the burden of having to figure out how to transform their companies into more lucrative businesses.

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Where will you be next year?

Saturday, May 9th, 2009

In the sales business, rejections come with a myriad of reasons. But a recent demurring prospect struck a nerve. The media company’s marketing budget, I was told, was in lock-down because of the economy. There was no money to spend on research, consulting and advertising. “Maybe next year,” I was told. It reminded me of the amazing story of Kellogg’s Rice Krispies.

In the late 1920s, Post and Kellogg were duking it out over packaged cereals, and Post was the category leader. When the Depression hit, Post did what many other companies do in such a downturn — it cut expenses and reigned in advertising. But Kellogg took a different approach. It upped the ad budget and spent most of it on the nascent medium of radio. With the introduction of Rice Krispies, Kellogg wound up with a 30% increase in packaged cereal sales by 1933. It was then that Kellogg took the lead in cereals and never looked back. Even today Kellogg’s is still No. 1. Did Post think, “maybe next year,” back in 1929?

With advertising tanking for traditional media, shouldn’t now be the time to convince advertisers of the value of the Internet if they can’t afford traditional media? Are you demonstrating to small and medium businesses how they can more effectively and efficiently advertise online? Are you pointing out how they can take advantage of competitors’ cutbacks? Of course this assumes that you have made the investment and continued commitment to increase your online initiatives even during a downturn. After all, online is the one medium where we still forecast strong growth. And if you think this tact just exacerbates cannibalism of ad dollars, you are assuming that things will return to “normal” after this recession. History has proven that assumption wrong again and again. Don’t be caught thinking, “maybe next year.”

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These Guys Are Wrong

Tuesday, May 5th, 2009

After reading Warren Buffett’s remarks in the Wall Street Journal (“Buffett Sees ‘Unending Losses’ for Many Newspapers”), I am amazed by some of the prognostications rattling around the media about the future of newspapers. Besides Mr. Buffett’s remarks, I heard Ken Doctor (Outsource.com) say that “all newspapers” were looking at 20 percent loss in ad revenue this year, while he was being interviewed on NPR yesterday.

The truth is somewhat less simple. There are more than 2,000 newspapers currently operating in the US. Of these, less than 200 are bigger metro dailies owned by chains. These are truly in trouble – big trouble – due to loss of classified (auto, real estate, and recruitment) and department store ad spending. The status of the other 1800+ is far different. Most of these are smaller newspapers serving suburban, rural, or small town markets. In many cases, they remain the premier local media channel in the markets they serve, since many don’t have local TV or big radio. These papers have seen some erosion in ad revenue, as have all “offline” media. However, they have not seen the dramatic drops played out in the larger markets. For the most part, they never had much of the revenue that’s gone in the first place, so they don’t miss it. Additionally, since they are (still) the premier media outlet, they continue to get the levels of ad revenue they got in the past (or something close to it).

Mr. Buffett, Mr. Doctor, and many others blithely condemn the whole on the basis of evidence relating to the few. Moreover, they forecast a future that is a continual replay of the recent past. Neither position is logical or reasonable. Short answer: these guys are wrong.

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