Borrell Associates, Inc

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Archive for May, 2009

Where will you be next year?

Saturday, May 9th, 2009

In the sales business, rejections come with a myriad of reasons. But a recent demurring prospect struck a nerve. The media company’s marketing budget, I was told, was in lock-down because of the economy. There was no money to spend on research, consulting and advertising. “Maybe next year,” I was told. It reminded me of the amazing story of Kellogg’s Rice Krispies.

In the late 1920s, Post and Kellogg were duking it out over packaged cereals, and Post was the category leader. When the Depression hit, Post did what many other companies do in such a downturn — it cut expenses and reigned in advertising. But Kellogg took a different approach. It upped the ad budget and spent most of it on the nascent medium of radio. With the introduction of Rice Krispies, Kellogg wound up with a 30% increase in packaged cereal sales by 1933. It was then that Kellogg took the lead in cereals and never looked back. Even today Kellogg’s is still No. 1. Did Post think, “maybe next year,” back in 1929?

With advertising tanking for traditional media, shouldn’t now be the time to convince advertisers of the value of the Internet if they can’t afford traditional media? Are you demonstrating to small and medium businesses how they can more effectively and efficiently advertise online? Are you pointing out how they can take advantage of competitors’ cutbacks? Of course this assumes that you have made the investment and continued commitment to increase your online initiatives even during a downturn. After all, online is the one medium where we still forecast strong growth. And if you think this tact just exacerbates cannibalism of ad dollars, you are assuming that things will return to “normal” after this recession. History has proven that assumption wrong again and again. Don’t be caught thinking, “maybe next year.”

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These Guys Are Wrong

Tuesday, May 5th, 2009

After reading Warren Buffett’s remarks in the Wall Street Journal (“Buffett Sees ‘Unending Losses’ for Many Newspapers”), I am amazed by some of the prognostications rattling around the media about the future of newspapers. Besides Mr. Buffett’s remarks, I heard Ken Doctor (Outsource.com) say that “all newspapers” were looking at 20 percent loss in ad revenue this year, while he was being interviewed on NPR yesterday.

The truth is somewhat less simple. There are more than 2,000 newspapers currently operating in the US. Of these, less than 200 are bigger metro dailies owned by chains. These are truly in trouble – big trouble – due to loss of classified (auto, real estate, and recruitment) and department store ad spending. The status of the other 1800+ is far different. Most of these are smaller newspapers serving suburban, rural, or small town markets. In many cases, they remain the premier local media channel in the markets they serve, since many don’t have local TV or big radio. These papers have seen some erosion in ad revenue, as have all “offline” media. However, they have not seen the dramatic drops played out in the larger markets. For the most part, they never had much of the revenue that’s gone in the first place, so they don’t miss it. Additionally, since they are (still) the premier media outlet, they continue to get the levels of ad revenue they got in the past (or something close to it).

Mr. Buffett, Mr. Doctor, and many others blithely condemn the whole on the basis of evidence relating to the few. Moreover, they forecast a future that is a continual replay of the recent past. Neither position is logical or reasonable. Short answer: these guys are wrong.

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