You might think it takes a great deal of chutzpah to say that newspapers will see a mild rebound over the next several years. But all it really takes is a close examination of the trends and cycles, and a deep understanding of the history of electronic media.
So here are our latest projections: Newspapers will be down this year, then they’ll start going back up. We expect a 2.4% rebound in newspaper advertising in 2010, and continued single-digit increases over the next several years. By 2014, newspaper ad revenues will be up about 8.7% over 2009 levels. While national newspaper advertising will do just fine, we foresee the greatest growth in local print – going from $8.9 billion this year to $10.1 billion, a 13.4% increase.
True, it all equates to more of a dead-cat bounce than anything else. And even at 2014 levels of just under $30 billion, newspaper advertising won’t be anything near the $55 billion we saw earlier this decade. Nor will it ever return to that level.
The fact is, newspapers reached their peak 91 years ago as two publishers battled over the presidency. On Nov. 2, 1920, in the first-ever radio news broadcast, KDKA delivered the results: Warren Harding beat James Cox. Electronic media was born, as was the business of writing obituaries for the newspaper industry.
The long history of electronic media has proven that there’s never a one-for-one exchange. People don’t go to the Web to “read a newspaper,” much the way they don’t turn on the TV set to watch “radio with pictures.” Radio forced newspapers in the 1920s to become more local. TV’s expansion into evening news in the 1960s forced afternoon newspapers out of business. The Internet sucked the life out of newspapers’ classified advertising and as the number of pages shrank, forced newspapers to find ways to become more interesting, more relative to their audiences.
The latest mediamorphosis of newspapers is almost complete. This once-fat, gray caterpillar that we knew as the “major daily newspaper” is turning into a smaller, more delicate, colorful local magazine, with fair prospects for growth. The smaller newspapers are firmly entrenched in their niche of providing rich local content that people seem to prefer in print – rather than screen – format. Our local newspaper, the Virginia Gazette in Williamsburg, is actually growing circulation and is thick with advertising supplements.
We may be dead wrong. The entire industry might die, and scores of papers might go belly-up over the next year. I’d like you to mark your calendar for today’s date, 2010, and see if that’s the case, or if we wound up being right.
I welcome your comments and debate on this issue.
Download the memo.
Tags: advertising, Borrell Associates, Gordon Borrell, local media, newspapers, online media, print advertising
Great to here such positivity! If you want to read more local newspaper news online, check out http://www.mydigitalnewspaper.com – which launches on Monday 10th August.
It has thousands of newspaper editions from North America & UK, including top titles like DC Examiner, Bizjournals, Metro Canada, Washington Examiner, USA Weekend, Stars & Stripes, Shaw Media, The Guardian Weekly, Daily Express, Metro UK, Daily Star, & hundreds of top regional publishers too.
Enjoy! & keep up the debate! Digital editions and print will both have long & successful lives.
The Virginian Pilot had, what is now defunct, a youth-oriented news magazine. They hired an army of people to canvass the streets passing these things out for months on end. It was no more than 20 pages, half of that was some form of advertising. Everyone that I knew that had read it absolutely loved it. It was entertaining and informative.
You’re right when you say things will be slimming down and being more relevant to the local population. People are more used to the speed and convenience of online news that the ‘big gray caterpillar’ is a burden to even open up, especially for my generation.
I manage sales for an independent alt-weekly paper with a circulation of 40,000. All of our media competitors, electronic and otherwise are down double digits. We’re holding steady in a recession after 2 years of growth before that. We have more readers than our daily competitors! All I can say is, I’m glad I’m in this business and not radio or TV. Proof is in the pudding and we’re not going anywhere for a long time.
print media cannot die. it will be there. Now new improvement in digital printing technology will enable them to get interactive with people on very attractive and fast way.
Great post: fascinating report (at least in the sketchy detail I can glean from the PDF and your posting. I cover it enthusiastically here: http://thefutureofpublishing.com/blog/2009/08/back-from-the-brink-%E2%80%94-newspapers-stop-their-slide/.
That URL above looks weird, but you’ll easily find it on the front page of my site http://www.thefutureofpublishing.com.
Always ejoy your work.
Very well written. I liked the tie in to the birth of electronic media as the radio event in 1920. Helps put things in perspective. Thanks!
Be smart, but never show it.
A printed newspaper is the best there is in my opinion. Breakfast and just reading the paper is better than having breakfast behind a laptop.
But during the day I use the newspaper websites for news allmost every day.
Curious what the future will give us.
Frank
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This is a nice post. But my take is that the print media cannot die and not even under the shadow of internet. The print media still retains all its relevance and will surely remain so.