Archive for the ‘Conference’ Category

Is CareerBuilder the Super Bowl Winner?

Thursday, January 28th, 2010

During the Super Bowl you’ll see a commercial for one of the Top 5 local online advertising companies. That fact won’t be touted in the commercial, and you’ll be too deep into a belly laugh to realize that what you just saw represents an amazing success story for the newspaper industry. (If you’d like your belly laugh now, read on and I’ll give you a link to the commercial.)

The company is CareerBuilder, which has defied both gravity and business history to become the nation’s No. 1 recruitment Web site in terms of revenue.  Anyone with an understanding of disruptive technology would never have predicted this.  CareerBuilder has been tied to the newspaper industry via ownership (Gannett, McClatchy and Tribune) and by on-the-ground management. Everyone thought ownership by big newspaper companies meant that CareerBuilder’s destiny was to protect print help-wanted advertising, which peaked at $8.7 billion 10 years ago and didn’t even break $1 billion last year.  A decade ago, the likelihood of CareerBuilder’s failure against the unfettered Monster.com was high.

They were wrong.  Last year CareerBuilder hit about $550 million, 10% more than Monster.  According to our records, CareerBuilder was the fifth largest revenue-producer of all local online advertising companies we track.

Largest_local_advertising_companiesIf anything is worthy of a case study, it’s the determination of a few newspaper companies to become the biggest digital cannibal of all to their own recruitment advertising.  The war between the industry-owned CareerBuilder and its archenemy Monster.com is an amazing story worth deep analysis.  And after 15 years, CareerBuilder is definitely in the lead.

Perhaps the greatest expert on all this is Ira Gordon.   Ten years ago he became the Benedict Arnold of the newspaper industry, having spent 19 years helping the industry build and protect its recruitment advertising base, only to switch sides in November 1999 to become a vice president at Monster, the industry’s arch-enemy.

Shortly after that, Ira began showing up in local markets on behalf of Monster. He started off the free seminar for local recruiters with a flip charts showing that town’s newspaper circulation (inevitably down) and another showing its recruitment advertising rates (inevitably up).

While skirmishes between the newspaper industry and Monster had taken place since 1995, Ira’s move – and the deep loss of jobs during the dot-com recession of 2000 – marked the official start of the war.  He’s now a recruitment consultant in New York, and he now believes that CareerBuilder “has got to be called a success.”  With Monster having a formidable brand and being so close in revenues, however, he comes short of declaring CareerBuilder the winner.  “I’d call it a tie.”

“There’s absolutely no doubt that CareerBuilder has also catapulted itself into the No. 1 position,” he said.  “But that doesn’t necessarily mean their success will continue.”  Niche boards, like those run by trade associations, could be a significant threat to both job boards. “What I try to say,” Ira said, “is that niche boards have a natural audience that gravitate toward them.  The only thing the niche boards have to do is get their act together.  They haven’t done that … yet.”

Still, I believe it’s an amazing success story for the newspaper industry.  I can be a pretty funny guy during my presentations, and having spoken to thousands of newspaper executives over the past decade, I can tell you they are the least likely to give up a laugh.  They’re generally a serious crowd compared with the TV people (great hair, best dressed), radio people (more Hawaiian shirts per capita) and Internet people (more art or piercings per square inch of skin).

Which makes the Super Bowl commercials even more amazing.  CareerBuilder represents an example where the newspaper industry really “got it” and stepped out of the way.  You should vote for one of their commercials, and be thankful that some newspaper editor didn’t immediately axe the one marked “too hot for TV.”

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The Wayne Gretzky of Advertising

Friday, January 15th, 2010

When it comes to the future of local advertising, Dave Morgan is someone to watch.  He’s the Wayne Gretzky of the online advertising world – a guy who’s always skating to where the puck will be.  (He even looks like Gretzky.)  And in an interview we did with him recently, I found his thoughts on the future of local media right on the mark.

We interviewed Dave at the Grand Hyatt in New York last month as he was attending an advertising conference where the CEOs of Yahoo and AOL had just spent a lot of time talking about their biggest advertising opportunity:  You guessed it, “local.”

Dave will be back at the Grand Hyatt next month as a keynote speaker at our 2010 Local Online Advertising Conference.  You can see our interview with him on YouTube, or learn more about the conference here.

Dave has been at the forefront (in front of it actually) of ad-serving systems such as 24/7 RealMedia and Tacoda, which he founded and then sold to AOL for $247 million two years ago. He’s steeped in local media.  When I met him 15 years ago, he was general counsel for the Pennsylvania Newspaper Association looking for a way to get step into the Internet skating rink.

So where is local media headed?  “All too often,” he says, “we’ve always seen local as about channels – local is newspapers or local is radio or local is television or local is directories. But that’s not how things are happening in the emerging media economy.  It’s now more about the customers in the market as they’re trying to reach local and they’re trying to understand now how they work with all the different touch points to reach consumers and for the merchants to be able to best exploit their marketing dollars.”

Thought Dave is right, it’s not an easy concept for traditional media companies to grasp.  That’s why we’ve asked the people who are following that path – the Yodles, Local.coms, Reply.coms and other fast-growing local online advertising companies – to address the conference.  They’re offering local advertisers multiple touch points that in the end makes the phone ring or drives store traffic.

Dave believes we’re at a crucial point in the evolution of local media.  “It’s a really important time,” he says, “here in new York City, essentially the headquarrters of advertisers and marketing the world, to have a really important conference focused on local.”

I look forward to hearing more from Dave, and to seeing you there.

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The Jeff Jarvis Interview

Friday, January 8th, 2010

I had a discussion with author and CUNY professor Jeff Jarvis recently and was struck by his passion about hyperlocal journalism on the Web – something I’ve never felt had a sustainable business model.  You can see the interview on our YouTube Channel.

Jeff’s passion reminded me of a book I sent last year to Borrell Associates employees.  It was titled, “It’s Not What You Sell, It’s What You Stand For.” The book describes companies that not only have great products and services, but also a purpose.  Our purpose:  to save that noble enterprise called journalism.  As corny as it may sound, it’s what we believe we are doing.  We’re helping local media companies survive financially so they can continue to serve and protect their communities.

Jeff shares that purpose, though I must admit he wins the prize for being more passionate about it.

Jeff Jarvis discusses hyperlocal site profitability

Jeff Jarvis discusses hyperlocal site profitability

Jeff heads up the Interactive Journalism Program at the City University of New York.  I spoke with him in New York a few weeks ago as we prepared for his keynote address at our conference next month.  (We just posted a list of attending companies – we’ve got quite a diverse crowd interested in this topic.)   Jeff has always expressed a great clarity and strong opinion on the topic of journalism.  When I asked, “Why are you so passionate about this?” his response was, “Because I believe in journalism. Because I care about journalism.  I teach journalism.  I want journalism to not just survive, but to prosper and grow in the new world. And I believe it can.”

I believe it can, too.  But I don’t believe that it can survive on the Web without a viable business model.   And if it doesn’t, and if more newspapers shut down or local broadcast TV stations cease their newscasts because they’re too expensive to produce, the bright light of good journalism will get dimmer and perhaps become so intertwined with commercial messages as to become powerless.

Is the Web a viable replacement?  Can it — as Jeff says — not only survive on the Web, but prosper and grow?  I think so.  And I think the Web might be an even more powerful educator and equalizer in society.

But it won’t get there unless we make it financially viable.  Jeff’s panel at our conference includes some people who are generating enough revenue to not only keep the sites running and pay editors and journalists, but also turn a profit.  We’ll be posting a video interview on our YouTube channel next week with one of them — a remarkable story from Fisher Broadcasting seeing financial success with dozens of hyperlocal sites in Seattle.

These are the people with a purpose, and I’m very eager to see them succeed.

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Mobile DTV? Watch WRAL

Monday, January 4th, 2010

First off, Happy New Year.  I hope you had a good holiday and are as eager to get back to work as I am.

Next, I wanted to suggest that you brace yourself for an onslaught of news from this week’s Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.  The show will churn out a lot of hype about cool devices that deliver mobile video. I imagine local broadcast executives will be busy forwarding articles from the show to their editors and programmers with the notation, “What are we doing about this?”

An appropriate reply might be, “We’re watching what WRAL does with it.”

If anyone in the local broadcasting business wants to stay ahead of the curve, the easiest way is to watch and then copy WRAL-TV in Raleigh.  If you think local TV is defined by its enormous broadcast towers, news choppers, remote satellite trucks and digital news broadcasts consider this:  WRAL has the tallest tower east of the Mississippi, was the first station in the country to buy a news helicopter, the second to broadcast via satellite truck, and the first station to go digital.  Live video on mobile phones?  Old hat to WRAL, which has been doing it since 2007.

Its latest worth-copying venture is an aggressive foray into mobile digital television. City bus riders are already watching WRAL as they tool along the streets of Raleigh.  How cool is that?

But is there enough money to support mobile DTV?  “We’re looking five, 10 years down the road,” station vice president Jimmy Goodmon says in Monday’s Wall Street Journal.

In other words, not today, but certainly in the near future.

U.S. Mobile Advertising Spend 2005 - 2014

U.S. Mobile Advertising Spend 2005 - 2014

While everyone else is throwing out big numbers for mobile advertising, I continue to encourage broadcasters to pay close attention to two things:  a) the “local” portion of the numbers, and b) the “video” portion.   Yes, mobile advertising approached $2 billion last year and will probably hit $3 billion this year.  But the amount spent by local advertisers is barely 20% of it, and the amount spent on local video is 12% of that….meaning local mobile video advertising won’t crack $100 million this year, or barely 2% of all mobile advertising.  By 2014, we are forecasting that it will hit $1 billion, for a 10%share of all mobile advertising.  (For more detail, you can download the free mobile advertising report we released last month.)

I’ve been to Raleigh a number of times over the past few years to meet with Goodmon and his staff.  They are absolutely the most forward-thinking, positive-minded, innovative set of local TV operators I’ve ever run across.  That’s why I’ve asked Goodmon to speak at our conference next month in New York.  WRAL is definitely worth watching.

Does this mean local media companies should sit back and relax, or rush out and create agreements with city bus lines, local gas stations, or other outdoor venues?  I’d say it’s definitely time to experiment for those in the Top 50 markets, mainly because of competitive issues.  But I’d also warn that it’s best to get realistic about the advertising support that will undoubtedly lag the audience.  The vast majority of local mobile advertising in the next few years will come from text-based applications, not video.

It’ll be great to hear what’s working and what’s not during our Feb. 8-9 conference in New York.

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Google-Yelp … Nope!

Friday, December 18th, 2009

Google’s rumored $500 million offer to buy Yelp, a site offering consumer reviews, drives home my longstanding belief that the major portals — Google, Microsoft and Yahoo — are becoming the national networks in search of local affiliates like an NBC, CBS, ABC and Fox.

But while the deal apparently fell through over the weekend, I don’t think this it would have been a game changer because Yelp misses a key element: Local salespeople, or at least trusted ones. Just Google “Yelp salespeople” and you’ll understand the stickiness of this situation.

Our conference in February features an entire afternoon exploring these evolving portal-local media relationships. “Partnering with the Portals” features key executives from Google, Microsoft and Yahoo! who are in charge of developing relationships with local media.

Fasted Growing Local Online Marketing Companies of 2009

Fastest Growing Local Online Advertising Companies of 2009

Yelp is indeed a marketplace force. Its numbers weren’t previously made public until last week’s speculation of it being a $50 million company in 2009. While its estimated growth rate — if true — would put Yelp in the Top 5 fastest-growing local online advertising companies in 2009 at 66% growth (see chart), it still doesn’t make our list of the largest.  Craigslist, for instance, has twice the revenues as Yelp.  With a Google deal for Yelp, that might change.

However, I view very few things as “game changers,” and despite its potential magnitude I don’t think this would have made the list. Google has had a tough time making itself look local. Acquiring Yelp would have tied together two very important ends: Google and individual consumers. Real people.

But what they’re missing is an army of real salespeople. Local advertising is sold, not bought, which is to say that SMBs really do need a local sales force to hold their hands. They may go online after midnight and buy AdWords with credit cards, but eventually stop buying because they don’t have enough time to manage the account or understand whether it’s actually working.

It takes a local sales force, and it will take a different type of partnership for Google to really become a local advertising powerhouse. It’ll need to acquire a company with a fairly large local and reputable sales force.

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5 Things to Watch–and Act On

Monday, December 14th, 2009

We have issued our Top 5 recommendations for local online advertising in 2010. They’re pretty straightforward:  Identify and copy the fastest growers, start partnering with other companies, offer “promotions” services to advertisers, monitor but be cautious about mobile, and dive into video advertising. But I thought I’d also offers some predictions for 2010 that might startle you.

First, I’m excited to announce that we have a new list of speakers we’ll be announcing this week for our Feb. 8-9 conference in New York. In the spirit of identifying and copying the fastest-growing local online advertising companies, we’ve gone to the trouble of identifying them for you — and getting their top executives to stand up at our conference and tell you why they’ve become the new darlings of Main Street.  We’ve also secured speakers from companies like Fisher Broadcasting, which has launched 43 hyperlocal sites in Seattle that are fast becoming profitable, as well as leading revenue producers in email, video, promotions and paid search.  Wait ’til you see the final agenda.

OK, on to the startling things.  I believe that 2010 will see a clear divide between the local media companies that are crossing the gorge and those being left behind.  Positive growth in Internet revenues will be the delineator.  Those who continue to see declines will clearly have tied their Internet operations too closely to their legacy media companies or will have formulated products that don’t resonate with Main Street advertisers.  Other predictions:

Largest Local Online Advertising Companies, 2009

Largest Local Online Advertising Companies, 2009

1.  Newspapers rebound.  Look for a 2-4% increase in newspaper ad revenues next year.  Smaller papers might fare better.  Those who make the digital transition will see up to 20% of their total ad revenues coming from the Internet next year.  The Yahoo-newspaper partnerships will generate $200 million to $300 million in geo-targeted banner sales.

2.  Local Internet advertising grows 5-9% next year, making it harder than ever for many companies to ride whatever tide is left.

3.  Mobile advertising skyrockets (on a small base), but local ad buys remain short-term and experimental.

4.  Cable companies dive deeper into local Internet sales.  Look for acquisitions and partnerships like we saw with the Yellow Pages in the early to mid-1990s.

5.  Yellow Pages continue a precipitous decline, high single digits but perhaps double digits for some.  Meanwhile, their Internet revenues will grow to comprise one-fifth of ad revenues.

Predictions are no more than educated guesses, so I really didn’t want to spend too much time on speculation.  The recommendations are key to what I think you should be watching.  The largest local online advertising companies are interesting to observe, but the fastest-growing ones above $25 million in revenue are the ones worth studying — and copying.

I hope you can make it to our conference.  We’re going to spend a lot of time dissecting these companies and learning why local advertisers have become so enamored of what they’re offering.

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Embracing TV talent on the tiny screen

Tuesday, September 29th, 2009

If legacy media companies were conservative parents, David and Michael Castello would be the beguiled rock stars leading the kids astray.

The hip brothers own six “city.com” domains in Tennessee, California and Florida, as well as sites like Whisky.com, Chili.com and Bootleg.com. They just scooped up weatherman Tim Ross, formerly from local NBC affiliate WSMV-TV.  Ross has joined the talent at the Castello’s Nashville.com. Once voted the most popular TV weatherman in Texas, Ross said the Castellos have “given me the freedom to stretch my creative wings.”

The sucking sound of the Internet has struck in other cities where personalities have moved from the small screen to the tiny screen.  It’s almost as if these anchors stood up, yelled “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it any more!” and left.  In reality, their contracts weren’t renewed as the local TV market downsized.

Nashville.com, a Castello Property

Nashville.com, a Castello Property

In Charlotte, popular weather anchor Terri Bennett lost her job and promptly bought billboards around town to lure her audience to terribennett.com, an ad-supported site where she provides information on the weather and conservation.  In Charleston, S.C., longtime WCBD anchor Warren Peper got canned and wound up doing videos for Charleston.net, the site owned by the Charleston Post & Courier.

Back to the Castellos. These guys bear some watching. One of their sites makes more money than any locally owned media site in that market. They do it without a lick of broadcast or print cross-promotion, a base of advertisers from which to up-sell, an existing staff to sell it, or a massive bank of news, weather or sports to splay across its Web site. Hundreds of independent sites are competing heartily and doing it well, from Myrtlebeach.com to Toledo.com Branson.com to SanDiego.com.

While they often get snubbed by legacy media companies because they aren’t very attractive or don’t contain serious news, their hearts are tuned precisely to the needs of advertisers and consumers.  They are the Craig Newmarks of the city.com business.  Kinda geeky, very little design skill, and perhaps more lucky than brilliant.

How do they do it?  I’ve invited Mike and David Castello to address our conference in New York next February. They’ve graciously agreed, and I intend to let them speak about WestPalmBeach.com, PalmSprings.com, Nashville.com and the other sites they own. I also intend to grill them on whether these sites are truly making any money, or whether this is all just smoke and mirrors.

Hope to see you there. It’ll be a very interesting session.

Borrell Associates Conference Feb 8-9, 2010

Borrell Associates Conference Feb 8-9, 2010

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