Archive for the ‘local advertising’ Category

Those Who Forget the Past…

Monday, March 1st, 2010

Many of the online news services carried a headline recently, “Newspaper Local Web Sites Most Trusted Source for News.” The story behind the headline cited research recently completed for the Newspaper Association of America (NAA) by Comscore. Even though any self-promoting research must be viewed with skepticism, the Comscore results may well be valid. The problem is, it doesn’t matter. Unless the local papers can monetize their draw for news, they will still be shoved aside by other sites that can. Local newspaper sites that still depend on run-of-site static display for most of their online ad dollars will not see the increases in advertising that others who use search, targeted rich text, video and online direct will enjoy.

A long time ago (only 15 years, really … it just seems like longer now) newspaper research found another satisfying trend. The numbers seemed to show that when a person turned 35 or so, bought a home, and started to make a better than  average salary, he or she somehow morphed into a newspaper reader. It may seem laughable now, but it was an accepted industry fact back then. A few years later, research from Clark, Martine & Bartolomeo proved that this “fact” was absolutely wrong. The “Born to Read?” research showed that if readers were analyzed by year of birth instead of age, a very different picture emerged. Instead of some miraculous transformation, a generational change was occurring. Baby boomers read newspapers less than their parents, boomer’s kids read less yet, and so on. We now know their research was right. We see it every time newspaper circulation is measured.

Newspapers got on the Web early, but they weren’t very smart about monetizing their online presence. Instead, they offered many services (including news) for free. The theory was that these services would point users to the “core product,” i.e. the printed newspaper. Sadly, people who are used to getting something for free resist paying for it. Attempts to get money for online news have not been well-received. In the meantime, newspaper share of local online ad revenue has dropped by half during the last four years. So now newspapers have a conundrum: a trusted source of news that is hard to monetize. Rather than researching what they know and patting themselves on the back, they should be researching what they don’t know and figuring out what to do next.

Share and Enjoy:
  • Digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Google Bookmarks
  • Reddit
  • Twitter

Is CareerBuilder the Super Bowl Winner?

Thursday, January 28th, 2010

During the Super Bowl you’ll see a commercial for one of the Top 5 local online advertising companies. That fact won’t be touted in the commercial, and you’ll be too deep into a belly laugh to realize that what you just saw represents an amazing success story for the newspaper industry. (If you’d like your belly laugh now, read on and I’ll give you a link to the commercial.)

The company is CareerBuilder, which has defied both gravity and business history to become the nation’s No. 1 recruitment Web site in terms of revenue.  Anyone with an understanding of disruptive technology would never have predicted this.  CareerBuilder has been tied to the newspaper industry via ownership (Gannett, McClatchy and Tribune) and by on-the-ground management. Everyone thought ownership by big newspaper companies meant that CareerBuilder’s destiny was to protect print help-wanted advertising, which peaked at $8.7 billion 10 years ago and didn’t even break $1 billion last year.  A decade ago, the likelihood of CareerBuilder’s failure against the unfettered Monster.com was high.

They were wrong.  Last year CareerBuilder hit about $550 million, 10% more than Monster.  According to our records, CareerBuilder was the fifth largest revenue-producer of all local online advertising companies we track.

Largest_local_advertising_companiesIf anything is worthy of a case study, it’s the determination of a few newspaper companies to become the biggest digital cannibal of all to their own recruitment advertising.  The war between the industry-owned CareerBuilder and its archenemy Monster.com is an amazing story worth deep analysis.  And after 15 years, CareerBuilder is definitely in the lead.

Perhaps the greatest expert on all this is Ira Gordon.   Ten years ago he became the Benedict Arnold of the newspaper industry, having spent 19 years helping the industry build and protect its recruitment advertising base, only to switch sides in November 1999 to become a vice president at Monster, the industry’s arch-enemy.

Shortly after that, Ira began showing up in local markets on behalf of Monster. He started off the free seminar for local recruiters with a flip charts showing that town’s newspaper circulation (inevitably down) and another showing its recruitment advertising rates (inevitably up).

While skirmishes between the newspaper industry and Monster had taken place since 1995, Ira’s move – and the deep loss of jobs during the dot-com recession of 2000 – marked the official start of the war.  He’s now a recruitment consultant in New York, and he now believes that CareerBuilder “has got to be called a success.”  With Monster having a formidable brand and being so close in revenues, however, he comes short of declaring CareerBuilder the winner.  “I’d call it a tie.”

“There’s absolutely no doubt that CareerBuilder has also catapulted itself into the No. 1 position,” he said.  “But that doesn’t necessarily mean their success will continue.”  Niche boards, like those run by trade associations, could be a significant threat to both job boards. “What I try to say,” Ira said, “is that niche boards have a natural audience that gravitate toward them.  The only thing the niche boards have to do is get their act together.  They haven’t done that … yet.”

Still, I believe it’s an amazing success story for the newspaper industry.  I can be a pretty funny guy during my presentations, and having spoken to thousands of newspaper executives over the past decade, I can tell you they are the least likely to give up a laugh.  They’re generally a serious crowd compared with the TV people (great hair, best dressed), radio people (more Hawaiian shirts per capita) and Internet people (more art or piercings per square inch of skin).

Which makes the Super Bowl commercials even more amazing.  CareerBuilder represents an example where the newspaper industry really “got it” and stepped out of the way.  You should vote for one of their commercials, and be thankful that some newspaper editor didn’t immediately axe the one marked “too hot for TV.”

Share and Enjoy:
  • Digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Google Bookmarks
  • Reddit
  • Twitter

The Wayne Gretzky of Advertising

Friday, January 15th, 2010

When it comes to the future of local advertising, Dave Morgan is someone to watch.  He’s the Wayne Gretzky of the online advertising world – a guy who’s always skating to where the puck will be.  (He even looks like Gretzky.)  And in an interview we did with him recently, I found his thoughts on the future of local media right on the mark.

We interviewed Dave at the Grand Hyatt in New York last month as he was attending an advertising conference where the CEOs of Yahoo and AOL had just spent a lot of time talking about their biggest advertising opportunity:  You guessed it, “local.”

Dave will be back at the Grand Hyatt next month as a keynote speaker at our 2010 Local Online Advertising Conference.  You can see our interview with him on YouTube, or learn more about the conference here.

Dave has been at the forefront (in front of it actually) of ad-serving systems such as 24/7 RealMedia and Tacoda, which he founded and then sold to AOL for $247 million two years ago. He’s steeped in local media.  When I met him 15 years ago, he was general counsel for the Pennsylvania Newspaper Association looking for a way to get step into the Internet skating rink.

So where is local media headed?  “All too often,” he says, “we’ve always seen local as about channels – local is newspapers or local is radio or local is television or local is directories. But that’s not how things are happening in the emerging media economy.  It’s now more about the customers in the market as they’re trying to reach local and they’re trying to understand now how they work with all the different touch points to reach consumers and for the merchants to be able to best exploit their marketing dollars.”

Thought Dave is right, it’s not an easy concept for traditional media companies to grasp.  That’s why we’ve asked the people who are following that path – the Yodles, Local.coms, Reply.coms and other fast-growing local online advertising companies – to address the conference.  They’re offering local advertisers multiple touch points that in the end makes the phone ring or drives store traffic.

Dave believes we’re at a crucial point in the evolution of local media.  “It’s a really important time,” he says, “here in new York City, essentially the headquarrters of advertisers and marketing the world, to have a really important conference focused on local.”

I look forward to hearing more from Dave, and to seeing you there.

Share and Enjoy:
  • Digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Google Bookmarks
  • Reddit
  • Twitter

The Jeff Jarvis Interview

Friday, January 8th, 2010

I had a discussion with author and CUNY professor Jeff Jarvis recently and was struck by his passion about hyperlocal journalism on the Web – something I’ve never felt had a sustainable business model.  You can see the interview on our YouTube Channel.

Jeff’s passion reminded me of a book I sent last year to Borrell Associates employees.  It was titled, “It’s Not What You Sell, It’s What You Stand For.” The book describes companies that not only have great products and services, but also a purpose.  Our purpose:  to save that noble enterprise called journalism.  As corny as it may sound, it’s what we believe we are doing.  We’re helping local media companies survive financially so they can continue to serve and protect their communities.

Jeff shares that purpose, though I must admit he wins the prize for being more passionate about it.

Jeff Jarvis discusses hyperlocal site profitability

Jeff Jarvis discusses hyperlocal site profitability

Jeff heads up the Interactive Journalism Program at the City University of New York.  I spoke with him in New York a few weeks ago as we prepared for his keynote address at our conference next month.  (We just posted a list of attending companies – we’ve got quite a diverse crowd interested in this topic.)   Jeff has always expressed a great clarity and strong opinion on the topic of journalism.  When I asked, “Why are you so passionate about this?” his response was, “Because I believe in journalism. Because I care about journalism.  I teach journalism.  I want journalism to not just survive, but to prosper and grow in the new world. And I believe it can.”

I believe it can, too.  But I don’t believe that it can survive on the Web without a viable business model.   And if it doesn’t, and if more newspapers shut down or local broadcast TV stations cease their newscasts because they’re too expensive to produce, the bright light of good journalism will get dimmer and perhaps become so intertwined with commercial messages as to become powerless.

Is the Web a viable replacement?  Can it — as Jeff says — not only survive on the Web, but prosper and grow?  I think so.  And I think the Web might be an even more powerful educator and equalizer in society.

But it won’t get there unless we make it financially viable.  Jeff’s panel at our conference includes some people who are generating enough revenue to not only keep the sites running and pay editors and journalists, but also turn a profit.  We’ll be posting a video interview on our YouTube channel next week with one of them — a remarkable story from Fisher Broadcasting seeing financial success with dozens of hyperlocal sites in Seattle.

These are the people with a purpose, and I’m very eager to see them succeed.

Share and Enjoy:
  • Digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Google Bookmarks
  • Reddit
  • Twitter

Mobile DTV? Watch WRAL

Monday, January 4th, 2010

First off, Happy New Year.  I hope you had a good holiday and are as eager to get back to work as I am.

Next, I wanted to suggest that you brace yourself for an onslaught of news from this week’s Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.  The show will churn out a lot of hype about cool devices that deliver mobile video. I imagine local broadcast executives will be busy forwarding articles from the show to their editors and programmers with the notation, “What are we doing about this?”

An appropriate reply might be, “We’re watching what WRAL does with it.”

If anyone in the local broadcasting business wants to stay ahead of the curve, the easiest way is to watch and then copy WRAL-TV in Raleigh.  If you think local TV is defined by its enormous broadcast towers, news choppers, remote satellite trucks and digital news broadcasts consider this:  WRAL has the tallest tower east of the Mississippi, was the first station in the country to buy a news helicopter, the second to broadcast via satellite truck, and the first station to go digital.  Live video on mobile phones?  Old hat to WRAL, which has been doing it since 2007.

Its latest worth-copying venture is an aggressive foray into mobile digital television. City bus riders are already watching WRAL as they tool along the streets of Raleigh.  How cool is that?

But is there enough money to support mobile DTV?  “We’re looking five, 10 years down the road,” station vice president Jimmy Goodmon says in Monday’s Wall Street Journal.

In other words, not today, but certainly in the near future.

U.S. Mobile Advertising Spend 2005 - 2014

U.S. Mobile Advertising Spend 2005 - 2014

While everyone else is throwing out big numbers for mobile advertising, I continue to encourage broadcasters to pay close attention to two things:  a) the “local” portion of the numbers, and b) the “video” portion.   Yes, mobile advertising approached $2 billion last year and will probably hit $3 billion this year.  But the amount spent by local advertisers is barely 20% of it, and the amount spent on local video is 12% of that….meaning local mobile video advertising won’t crack $100 million this year, or barely 2% of all mobile advertising.  By 2014, we are forecasting that it will hit $1 billion, for a 10%share of all mobile advertising.  (For more detail, you can download the free mobile advertising report we released last month.)

I’ve been to Raleigh a number of times over the past few years to meet with Goodmon and his staff.  They are absolutely the most forward-thinking, positive-minded, innovative set of local TV operators I’ve ever run across.  That’s why I’ve asked Goodmon to speak at our conference next month in New York.  WRAL is definitely worth watching.

Does this mean local media companies should sit back and relax, or rush out and create agreements with city bus lines, local gas stations, or other outdoor venues?  I’d say it’s definitely time to experiment for those in the Top 50 markets, mainly because of competitive issues.  But I’d also warn that it’s best to get realistic about the advertising support that will undoubtedly lag the audience.  The vast majority of local mobile advertising in the next few years will come from text-based applications, not video.

It’ll be great to hear what’s working and what’s not during our Feb. 8-9 conference in New York.

Share and Enjoy:
  • Digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Google Bookmarks
  • Reddit
  • Twitter

Google-Yelp … Nope!

Friday, December 18th, 2009

Google’s rumored $500 million offer to buy Yelp, a site offering consumer reviews, drives home my longstanding belief that the major portals — Google, Microsoft and Yahoo — are becoming the national networks in search of local affiliates like an NBC, CBS, ABC and Fox.

But while the deal apparently fell through over the weekend, I don’t think this it would have been a game changer because Yelp misses a key element: Local salespeople, or at least trusted ones. Just Google “Yelp salespeople” and you’ll understand the stickiness of this situation.

Our conference in February features an entire afternoon exploring these evolving portal-local media relationships. “Partnering with the Portals” features key executives from Google, Microsoft and Yahoo! who are in charge of developing relationships with local media.

Fasted Growing Local Online Marketing Companies of 2009

Fastest Growing Local Online Advertising Companies of 2009

Yelp is indeed a marketplace force. Its numbers weren’t previously made public until last week’s speculation of it being a $50 million company in 2009. While its estimated growth rate — if true — would put Yelp in the Top 5 fastest-growing local online advertising companies in 2009 at 66% growth (see chart), it still doesn’t make our list of the largest.  Craigslist, for instance, has twice the revenues as Yelp.  With a Google deal for Yelp, that might change.

However, I view very few things as “game changers,” and despite its potential magnitude I don’t think this would have made the list. Google has had a tough time making itself look local. Acquiring Yelp would have tied together two very important ends: Google and individual consumers. Real people.

But what they’re missing is an army of real salespeople. Local advertising is sold, not bought, which is to say that SMBs really do need a local sales force to hold their hands. They may go online after midnight and buy AdWords with credit cards, but eventually stop buying because they don’t have enough time to manage the account or understand whether it’s actually working.

It takes a local sales force, and it will take a different type of partnership for Google to really become a local advertising powerhouse. It’ll need to acquire a company with a fairly large local and reputable sales force.

Share and Enjoy:
  • Digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Google Bookmarks
  • Reddit
  • Twitter

5 Things to Watch–and Act On

Monday, December 14th, 2009

We have issued our Top 5 recommendations for local online advertising in 2010. They’re pretty straightforward:  Identify and copy the fastest growers, start partnering with other companies, offer “promotions” services to advertisers, monitor but be cautious about mobile, and dive into video advertising. But I thought I’d also offers some predictions for 2010 that might startle you.

First, I’m excited to announce that we have a new list of speakers we’ll be announcing this week for our Feb. 8-9 conference in New York. In the spirit of identifying and copying the fastest-growing local online advertising companies, we’ve gone to the trouble of identifying them for you — and getting their top executives to stand up at our conference and tell you why they’ve become the new darlings of Main Street.  We’ve also secured speakers from companies like Fisher Broadcasting, which has launched 43 hyperlocal sites in Seattle that are fast becoming profitable, as well as leading revenue producers in email, video, promotions and paid search.  Wait ’til you see the final agenda.

OK, on to the startling things.  I believe that 2010 will see a clear divide between the local media companies that are crossing the gorge and those being left behind.  Positive growth in Internet revenues will be the delineator.  Those who continue to see declines will clearly have tied their Internet operations too closely to their legacy media companies or will have formulated products that don’t resonate with Main Street advertisers.  Other predictions:

Largest Local Online Advertising Companies, 2009

Largest Local Online Advertising Companies, 2009

1.  Newspapers rebound.  Look for a 2-4% increase in newspaper ad revenues next year.  Smaller papers might fare better.  Those who make the digital transition will see up to 20% of their total ad revenues coming from the Internet next year.  The Yahoo-newspaper partnerships will generate $200 million to $300 million in geo-targeted banner sales.

2.  Local Internet advertising grows 5-9% next year, making it harder than ever for many companies to ride whatever tide is left.

3.  Mobile advertising skyrockets (on a small base), but local ad buys remain short-term and experimental.

4.  Cable companies dive deeper into local Internet sales.  Look for acquisitions and partnerships like we saw with the Yellow Pages in the early to mid-1990s.

5.  Yellow Pages continue a precipitous decline, high single digits but perhaps double digits for some.  Meanwhile, their Internet revenues will grow to comprise one-fifth of ad revenues.

Predictions are no more than educated guesses, so I really didn’t want to spend too much time on speculation.  The recommendations are key to what I think you should be watching.  The largest local online advertising companies are interesting to observe, but the fastest-growing ones above $25 million in revenue are the ones worth studying — and copying.

I hope you can make it to our conference.  We’re going to spend a lot of time dissecting these companies and learning why local advertisers have become so enamored of what they’re offering.

Share and Enjoy:
  • Digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Google Bookmarks
  • Reddit
  • Twitter

The Hands of Radio Listeners

Tuesday, December 1st, 2009

Tuesday’s article in The Wall Street Journal about radio’s online efforts painted a perplexing picture of an industry that’s accustomed to targeting, but hasn’t figured out the most targeted medium of all – the Internet.

What’s worse, the target that the radio industry is hitting online is incredibly valuable.

With the help of Ken Dardis at Audio Graphics, we’ve been surveying the massive online “listening” audience” for the past year and have found some incredible things.  I’ll describe these results at next week’s Radio Forecasting Summit at the Harvard Club in New York.  Here’s a preview of some statistics about the estimated 42 million online radio listeners:

  • 42% of them said they bought something as a result of seeing an advertisement on the Web for a local business.
  • 53% of them use online coupons, and half of them use an online coupon at least once a month.
  • 33% of them use the Internet exclusively to look up information about local businesses, and 47% of them use both the Internet and the phone book.

If I were a local advertiser, I’d be very interested in this audience.  Engagement is high, and these listeners have a propensity to search for information about local businesses on the Internet.  Those are some powerful statistics that run the opposite of less-engaged mass broadcast audiences.  (Think of hands on keyboards versus hands on steering wheels.)

Online Radio Listeners and Advertising Survey

Online Radio Listeners and Advertising Survey

So why isn’t the radio industry doing better?  While some will say they are, the facts are pretty clear:  Radio stations will get about $230 million from local online ad sales this year.  Most of it will come from slapping banners on their CallLetter.com Web sites or inserting a $5 CPM commercial in their Internet audio streams.  Meanwhile, the yellow pages industry, which is roughly half the size of the entire radio industry ($10 billion in yellow pages ad revenue, compared with radio’s $19 billion in local and national network radio sales), will get more than six times as much online revenue – about $1.5 billion.    Even the TV guys are getting more than four times as much as radio, which is remarkable considering the fact that there are about half as many local TV salespeople pounding the streets compared with radio salespeople.

Here is one of the problems:  There are 250 million people listening to terrestrial radio, yet only 3 to 5 percent of them are listening to their audio streams on the Internet. To radio GMs, the audience is too small to mess with.   But as I’ve outlined, this audience is probably the distilled portion – the ones most engaged and most likely to purchase something.

I see encouraging signs that the industry is beginning to learn that it’s niche, not mass, that’s making the money on the Internet.  Once they start paying bigger attention to smaller numbers – and realize the value of their hands-on audience – they have a chance of seeing better returns from their Internet ventures.

* Joint survey of 973 online listeners in Dec. 2008-April 2009 via Audio Graphics and Borrell Associates Inc.

Share and Enjoy:
  • Digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Google Bookmarks
  • Reddit
  • Twitter

Is Google going down?

Sunday, November 1st, 2009

So what sets our Top 3 choices — Local.com, Yodle and Yellowbook.com — apart from the pack in terms of revenue growth this year?

These companies have defied gravity by focusing on selling the fastest growing ad categories:  search advertising, online directory listings, and streaming video. They also act as marketing consultants and can help small businesses with all the online marketing tools and advice they might need. They’ll put together a Web site for your business, offer complete analytics, online upgrades through a dashboard or if the advertiser gets stuck — they can just pick up the phone and talk to someone.

Google's in the crosshairs

Setting sights on Google

These companies are poised to beat the pants off traditional media because they see the gap that very few legacy outlets have been willing to commit to — the service gap. I mean, at most newspaper sites if a small business says to the account executive, “I need a way to collect e-mail,” the AE will probably send them to Constant Contact.  The right response should be, “Let’s set up a promotion to collect e-mails then we start mailing your list with specials.”

But, how can a traditional media outlet even compete, when according to our research, barely 60% of them have an online-only AE? That other 40% are trudging into advertisers’ offices with worries about cannibalization of the traditional product.

Back to the Top 3 — these company’s models are very similar and focus on soup-to-nuts interactive marketing for the small business. They have an actual phone number posted on their Web site. (Just try and find a phone number for Google.) In fact, this service-oriented model could disrupt Google, because small businesses need a figurative hand-holding. There is no face of Google and if I were them I’d begin to worry about that. They become vulnerable as advertisers begin to find other companies willing to lend a hand to pull them out of the service gap.

When I go into a market for a local media site and make an online marketing presentation to their potential advertisers, the small businesses are packing in and they are craving to have their questions about online marketing answered. They want to know what their business peers are spending, they want to know why their display ad doesn’t get clicked through and they want to know about the ROI. It is clear that you have to show a small business the whole online marketing picture and that’s exactly what these Top 3 are doing.

Plus these three are going after the most lucrative online ad spending business categories. Our own research data has identified that in most local markets these are lawyers, healthcare providers and home improvement, to name a few. But too many traditional media outlets in local markets are still calling on their traditional advertisers, which are not usually in these categories.

The Top 3 have been doing their research and now are methodically going out to hunt and to plug the service gap in local online advertising. They may have Google in their crosshairs.

Share and Enjoy:
  • Digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Google Bookmarks
  • Reddit
  • Twitter

For Whom the Bell Tolls

Wednesday, October 7th, 2009

A seminal event occured on Wall Street last week. At precisely 9:30 a.m. on Oct. 8, Heath Clarke, the CEO of Local.com, rang the NASDAQ opening bell. In so doing, he essentially rang in a new theme on Wall Street: Local is the new black.

Heath Clarke, Chairman & CEO, Local.com

Heath Clarke, Chairman & CEO, Local.com

In a report we released a few hours later, Local.com is listed as one of the Top 3 fastest-growing local online advertising companies in North America. This is a remarkable feat in a year when ad sales are phenomenally depressed for seemingly everyone else. Yet Clarke’s company is seeing growth of 34% this year on revenues that are expected to top $50 million.

Internet advertising down? Not for Local.com, which is aggressively mining the lucrative new frontier of “local.” Clarke’s company – and others like it, such as Yodle (with a whopping 210% growth rate this year) and Yellowbook.com (with a 98% growth rate) — are the ones to study.

I’ve invited the top digital executives at some of these companies to speak at our conference in February. I want to learn more about how these companies are doing it.  The report we released last week shows local Internet advertising rising at a rate of about 12 percent this year. Many legacy media companies who are suffering double-digit declines in online sales growth will find that hard to believe. But as that NASDAQ bell clanged and the trading began, it may as well have been an alarm clock for them, and for anyone else trying to mine digital gold in the local hills.

Share and Enjoy:
  • Digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Google Bookmarks
  • Reddit
  • Twitter