Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

A CEO Who “Gets It.”

Tuesday, February 9th, 2010

I am very proud to announce that the recipient of the 2010 Borrell Award of Merit for “Innovator of the Year” is Colleen Brown, CEO and President of Fisher Communications.

We had a range of remarkable people to pick from.  As you can imagine, the Internet and all its apps afford a tremendous amount of creativity.  But remember that we had a litmus test for all of our awards – results, and financial viability.  We didn’t want to select someone who merely implemented a great idea or rose to their 15 minutes of fame on a groundswell of page views.  We wanted to select someone who, through some unusual feat, created something that not only caused us to say, Wow!, but also delivered sustainable value to their company.

That person is Colleen Brown.  During our opening session at our conference in New York Monday, we heard from Colleen’s vice president of interactive, Troy McGuire, that the company hit two milestones last month:  it now has more than 100 hyperlocal sites, and more importantly, surpassed a whopping 1,000 advertisers.  And they didn’t start launching those sites until August 2009.

We could have selected Troy or some of the other geniuses in the Fisher Interactive camp for this award, and they would certainly be deserving.  But frankly, we believe that it’s the CEO who creates the environment that spawns innovation, holds the bean counters at bay, and demagnetizes the interactive operations enough to allow it to grow in ways that traditional brand managers might thwart.

When you privately ask an interactive manager at a local media company to talk about the support he’s getting from the CEO, you sometimes get more expletives than accolades.   But I think this quote from Fisher’s senior vice president, Troy McGuire, says a lot.  “She’s been unflagging in her support,” he said.  “She has gone well beyond what a typical broadcast company CEO might do to ensure our success.”

What’s happening in Seattle and at other Fisher properties is counter-culture change.  And counter-culture change doesn’t happen with just lip service, or with a CEO who offers moral support and then lets the Interactive manager duke out the details.  Or when the new venture is starved of resources because the mothership is suffering a bad year.   Change may happen in the ranks, but it has to come from the top.

And at the top of this remarkable story is one remarkable CEO.  We’re very pleased to give this award to Colleen Brown.

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Our Innovator of the Year

Friday, February 5th, 2010

2010 Borrell Awards of Merit

We’ll announce our Innovator of the Year award in New York on Tuesday, and I’m sure the person who walks through the luncheon crowd to the podium will be a surprise.  One might think it would go to a Web site manager who’s done something different, or a developer who’s created an app that emits the aroma of coffee from a Droid when you’re near a Starbucks.

Uh, no.  It’s going to a chief executive at a traditional media company.  Saywhat? A stodgy, button-downed media CEO worthy of an online innovator’s award?  Don’t innovators become innovators despite executive management?

That’s exactly why we selected this year’s recipient for the 2010 Borrell Award of Merit.  Our winner has demonostrated a deep understanding of disruptive innovation, organized the company for optimum performance, and drove outstanding results.  The litmus test for all three of our Awards of Merit is financial results, not “coolness.” And the financial performance that this executive stimulated is a real head-turner.

In a column for Inside Radio last November, I plucked a few CEO’s ears for failing to even recognize the outstanding effort that their interactive directors were tackling.   Only one company — RadioOne — routinely described its online ventures in any detail.  Bonneville Broadcasting produced a snazzy 22-minute video to describe all the great things it accomplished, snubbing its online efforts with an eight-second mention.  Even TV executives spend very little time discussing online ventures in their annual reports and presentations.

By now I guess you figured I’m not going to name the person or even give any clues, but thanks for getting to the end of the blog anyway.  Suffice it to say that we’re selecting this recipient because we believe that innovation may start at the bottom, but too often gets thumb-squashed by bean-counting CEOs at the top.  This executive opened the doors wide and stimulated transformation in a way that I think Wall Street will sit up and pay attention.

We’ll post the recipient’s name on our Web site Tuesday afternoon — along with the names of three other companies who will receive awards.  But if you’d like the immediate scoop, I’ll Twitter a few minutes before the announcement.  You can pick it up at www.twitter.com/goborrell.

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Advertisers’ Foreign Language

Thursday, December 10th, 2009

Digital media has twisted our language into a new hip lexicon.  We google something, friend someone or LOL at a joke. If it’s really funny, we might ROFLMAO.

And now advertisers are speaking a different language – different at least than traditional media companies.

At the Radio Forecast Summit this week in New York, ad buyers and agency folks seemed to be speaking different languages speaking a foreign language to people who have been laboring for decades under a simple model where great programming brings massive audiences that fetch big bucks from advertisers.  It’s a model that newspapers and TV managers operate under as well.

Don’t get me wrong — the summit was great.  Lots of forecasting information and debate about the future and value of media and how some companies are meeting those challenges.  But what agency and advertisers were describing was an example of the disconnect between traditional media folks and Madison Avenue.

The message from the radio executives could best be summed up like this:  We have a megaphone that reaches 250 million people.

The message from the marketers went like this:  We need more creative solutions to help us collect and analyze more data about our advertising and our customers.

I visualized little comic-book bubbles floating above everyone’s heads. Huh?

Let me offer the 40,000-foot view. Businesses will spend about $680 billion this year to market their products and services. One-third of that goes toward traditional media advertising; the rest goes to things like coupons, rebates, Web site development, contests, trade shows, and public relations.  Over the next five years, the amount spent on advertising is forecast to decline 7.5%.  The amount spent on everything else is expected to increase 24%.

Traditional media advertising has entered the era of perpetual decline.  Perpetual decline, my friends.  No more riding the annual tide.

The advertisers were actually saying something very simple, and I think local media companies have a great opportunity to meet their needs.  All they really want is to drive store traffic or make the phone ring.  What they need from local media companies is a little help getting and managing bits and pieces of information that quantifies the success of those campaigns.  They need pageviews, clickthroughs, email addresses, abandon rates, demographics, time spent on pages, etc., etc. etc.

It’s not a foreign language at all.  It just takes a little more brainpower and creativity (and tools) to reach into the “non-advertising” side of the equation.  The days of order-taking are clearly over. As the COO of ad agency Neo@Oglivy said, “There is huge potential to go beyond advertising.  There’s a big opportunity here.”

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The Hands of Radio Listeners

Tuesday, December 1st, 2009

Tuesday’s article in The Wall Street Journal about radio’s online efforts painted a perplexing picture of an industry that’s accustomed to targeting, but hasn’t figured out the most targeted medium of all – the Internet.

What’s worse, the target that the radio industry is hitting online is incredibly valuable.

With the help of Ken Dardis at Audio Graphics, we’ve been surveying the massive online “listening” audience” for the past year and have found some incredible things.  I’ll describe these results at next week’s Radio Forecasting Summit at the Harvard Club in New York.  Here’s a preview of some statistics about the estimated 42 million online radio listeners:

  • 42% of them said they bought something as a result of seeing an advertisement on the Web for a local business.
  • 53% of them use online coupons, and half of them use an online coupon at least once a month.
  • 33% of them use the Internet exclusively to look up information about local businesses, and 47% of them use both the Internet and the phone book.

If I were a local advertiser, I’d be very interested in this audience.  Engagement is high, and these listeners have a propensity to search for information about local businesses on the Internet.  Those are some powerful statistics that run the opposite of less-engaged mass broadcast audiences.  (Think of hands on keyboards versus hands on steering wheels.)

Online Radio Listeners and Advertising Survey

Online Radio Listeners and Advertising Survey

So why isn’t the radio industry doing better?  While some will say they are, the facts are pretty clear:  Radio stations will get about $230 million from local online ad sales this year.  Most of it will come from slapping banners on their CallLetter.com Web sites or inserting a $5 CPM commercial in their Internet audio streams.  Meanwhile, the yellow pages industry, which is roughly half the size of the entire radio industry ($10 billion in yellow pages ad revenue, compared with radio’s $19 billion in local and national network radio sales), will get more than six times as much online revenue – about $1.5 billion.    Even the TV guys are getting more than four times as much as radio, which is remarkable considering the fact that there are about half as many local TV salespeople pounding the streets compared with radio salespeople.

Here is one of the problems:  There are 250 million people listening to terrestrial radio, yet only 3 to 5 percent of them are listening to their audio streams on the Internet. To radio GMs, the audience is too small to mess with.   But as I’ve outlined, this audience is probably the distilled portion – the ones most engaged and most likely to purchase something.

I see encouraging signs that the industry is beginning to learn that it’s niche, not mass, that’s making the money on the Internet.  Once they start paying bigger attention to smaller numbers – and realize the value of their hands-on audience – they have a chance of seeing better returns from their Internet ventures.

* Joint survey of 973 online listeners in Dec. 2008-April 2009 via Audio Graphics and Borrell Associates Inc.

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News for tweens? OMG!

Tuesday, November 24th, 2009

Everybody bemoans the absence of the “youth” audience from newspapers, radio, and TV.   How, they ask, can there be any future for legacy media if young people aren’t  reading, listening or watching?  

One answer might be a site called TweenTribune, which should be a local news editor’s dream when it comes to reaching “tomorrow’s” news consumers.  Teachers in six countries are using TweenTribune – including one who happens to teach one of the tweens living in my household.

Let’s talk about tweens for a minute.  There are about 25 million of these confused and generally annoying little people in the U.S. alone.  (I’ve got a lot of experience here.  Two have already passed through this stage at my household.  One is in the throes of Tweendom, and two more are not far behind.)

They are responsible for many things – most of which they’ll deny – but the most important of which is about $150 billion in spending.  I’m talking cell phones, dresses, board shorts, sneakers, T-shirts, sneakers, gum, sweat shirts, video games, skate boards, sneakers, fast-food and ringtones.  That doesn’t count the estimated $170 billion in matching expenditures by parents and relatives on things like braces, sneakers, haircuts, skateboards, text-messaging fees and music downloads.

How in the world does traditional media reach them anymore?  Advertisers have been perplexed for more than a decade, since newspapers cut their comics, radio lost out to iPods and MTV’s reality got too unreal for them.

TweenTribune is the brainchild of Alan Jacobson, a newspaper designer with tweens of his own.  It combines the attraction of totally interesting news (make sure you say “totally” with the right inflection) with the power of social networking on the Web.  And the irony is that, even though it’s sanctioned by both parents and schools, the kids are really into it. Jacobson has pitched the idea to newspapers and TV stations as local partners, but schools are learning about it on their own and coming to him directly.

Traffic has skyrocketed, even though TweenTribune has only been around since last spring and hasn’t been actively promoted since mid-September.  It’s approaching a half-million pageviews per month.   Jacobson says he’s flooded with registration requests from teachers – averaging 100 per week in the past two months – and 10,000 students per month.

The concept is pretty simple.  Take any oddly interesting  news item – like the kid in the runaway balloon, the Octamom, Michael Jackson’s death, or the opening of a new vampire movie – and put it on a protected Web site for a school where teachers can ask kids to log in and comment on one or two stories for a Social Studies grade.  The comments go “live” only when the teacher approves them.  The kids get to read others’ comments as well, and the stories get ranked by the number of kids commenting on them.

The execution is a bit more complicated, but not much.  Space is reserved for advertising, and teachers can print out comment reports for easy grading.  So the ads appear in front of the students, teachers and, often, parents who see the grades.

Wow.  This is the way local media companies ought to be thinking.

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The Lady in the Sweat Suit

Saturday, November 7th, 2009

I was in a 7-Eleven last week and watched a middle-aged woman in a sweat suit pay $1.50 for the Sunday newspaper, then walk outside and dump half of it in the trashcan. Care to guess what part she dumped?

Like 37% of newspaper readers (according to Scarborough Research), she’s interested in the advertising. Her $1.50 was likely to have bought her at least $5 in coupons that she’ll redeem at the grocery store, Rite Aid or Wal-Mart. Smart purchase.

While most of the newspaper industry frets over giving away its precious news content, its most vulnerable franchise is produced by the advertising department. Newspapers should thank their lucky stars that the woman in the sweat suit did what she did. She could have stayed at home and gone to SalesCircular.com or one of the many other sites that would have given her the same thing. If she were in Long Island, she might get her coupons from www.yourli.com, an incredibly useful and popular site run by a group of radio stations. If she were in Bakersfield, Calif., she might go to www.shopkern.com, a shopping and coupon site run by KERO-TV.

I hope publishers learn soon that their most important content isn’t its local news.  It’s advertising. The issue was underscored last week when the president of the Newspaper Association of America sent a e-mail warning that J.C. Penney’s and Sears were threatening to pull their circulars because of lower circulation and the industry’s inability to reach younger demos. Circulars, he said, account for half of all newspaper retail advertising.

Local-allocation

I wouldn’t count newspapers out. Despite layoffs, bankruptcies circulation scandals and thinning classified sections, they are still king when it comes to local advertising. The crown is tarnished, but at the end of the day newspapers still control the largest slice of the $143 billion local ad pie, 26%. The next-closest share: Interactive at 14%. Then broadcast TV at 12%, then Direct Mail at 11%. Advertisers know about the lady in the sweat suit, and they’re eager to meet her on Saturdays and Sundays when she’s got her wallet and credit cards ready.  Newspapers remain the No. 1 source for coupons, representing 50% of all coupon sources.  The Internet represents 11%, but is certainly growing.

Newspapers are vulnerable, but their managers aren’t dumb. Gannett owns ShopLocal.com, an Internet distribution mechanism for its print circulars now plugged into all its newspaper and TV sites. The Suburban Newspapers of America this fall launched www.zip2save.com and is signing up smaller newspapers across the country. It’s modeled after www.flyerland.ca, a highly successful site created by Metroland Newspapers in Canada.

The debate over charging for news content is silly. Rupert Murdoch may be carrying the battle flag, but the legions of publishers following him over the hill appear to be heading into the sunset.  Charging for online access may slow the erosion in print circulation, but it’s never going to lead the industry to riches. Understanding the behavior of the lady in the sweat suit will.

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Is Google going down?

Sunday, November 1st, 2009

So what sets our Top 3 choices — Local.com, Yodle and Yellowbook.com — apart from the pack in terms of revenue growth this year?

These companies have defied gravity by focusing on selling the fastest growing ad categories:  search advertising, online directory listings, and streaming video. They also act as marketing consultants and can help small businesses with all the online marketing tools and advice they might need. They’ll put together a Web site for your business, offer complete analytics, online upgrades through a dashboard or if the advertiser gets stuck — they can just pick up the phone and talk to someone.

Google's in the crosshairs

Setting sights on Google

These companies are poised to beat the pants off traditional media because they see the gap that very few legacy outlets have been willing to commit to — the service gap. I mean, at most newspaper sites if a small business says to the account executive, “I need a way to collect e-mail,” the AE will probably send them to Constant Contact.  The right response should be, “Let’s set up a promotion to collect e-mails then we start mailing your list with specials.”

But, how can a traditional media outlet even compete, when according to our research, barely 60% of them have an online-only AE? That other 40% are trudging into advertisers’ offices with worries about cannibalization of the traditional product.

Back to the Top 3 — these company’s models are very similar and focus on soup-to-nuts interactive marketing for the small business. They have an actual phone number posted on their Web site. (Just try and find a phone number for Google.) In fact, this service-oriented model could disrupt Google, because small businesses need a figurative hand-holding. There is no face of Google and if I were them I’d begin to worry about that. They become vulnerable as advertisers begin to find other companies willing to lend a hand to pull them out of the service gap.

When I go into a market for a local media site and make an online marketing presentation to their potential advertisers, the small businesses are packing in and they are craving to have their questions about online marketing answered. They want to know what their business peers are spending, they want to know why their display ad doesn’t get clicked through and they want to know about the ROI. It is clear that you have to show a small business the whole online marketing picture and that’s exactly what these Top 3 are doing.

Plus these three are going after the most lucrative online ad spending business categories. Our own research data has identified that in most local markets these are lawyers, healthcare providers and home improvement, to name a few. But too many traditional media outlets in local markets are still calling on their traditional advertisers, which are not usually in these categories.

The Top 3 have been doing their research and now are methodically going out to hunt and to plug the service gap in local online advertising. They may have Google in their crosshairs.

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Radio lags, but shouldn’t

Saturday, October 24th, 2009

I’m puzzled by the radio industry. As I wrote in a recent Inside Radio column, it has the greatest potential and the weakest realization of the Internet’s possibilities.

Our most recent assessment of the radio industry’s efforts shows that it is on track to get $231 million from local online ad sales this year, up 5% from 2008. Sounds like a lot, until you consider that competitors in the TV, newspaper, yellow pages space are getting more than $1 billion each from local online sales.

Despite radio’s potential, I don’t see the industry achieving more than a 2% share of online advertising anytime soon. Our forecast calls for radio to see a slight uptick next year in interactive sales, growing 15% to $265 million. (This is just for local radio stations; if you add online sales from national radio sites like CBSRadio.com and ESPNRadio.com, the overall total comes to about $380 million this year.)

Radio Stations Local Online Revenue 2003-2012

Radio Stations Local Online Revenue 2003-2012

The “potential” comes from the fact that radio has the second-largest number of feet-on-the-street sellers of local advertising – about 18,000 in all. Newspapers have the most at 31,000, and yellow pages the third-largest sales force at about 14,000. But the radio industry also has something that no other local media competitor has: The only daily produced local entertainment program, and a deep understanding of social networking. Think of the strong affinities that form around music genres such as country, classical, adult contemporary, hip-hop, sports talk, politics, and hard rock.

Isn’t the Internet about social networking? Aren’t advertisers turning to the Internet for ways to promote themselves and connect with “engaged” niche audiences like this?

Radio operators know this business model well. A few are indeed leading the way, like Long Island Radio Group’s money-saving and coupon site, www.yourli.com. The group has branched out beyond the CallLetter.com mindset and is using the Web to reach into the space once dominated by newspapers and direct mail. Radio One is also leading with sites like www.elev8.com and www.blackplanet.com.

I wish others would take the cue.

NOTE: If you’re interested in hearing more, I’ll be highlighting some of the top performers in the industry at the Radio Ink Forecast Summit Dec. 8 in New York. If you’re planning to attend and would like to meet, please let me know. We’ll also, we’ll be delving deeper into radio’s opportunity and highlighting a few of the industry’s most innovative stations during our own conference in February. Hope to see you there!

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Mobile Advertising’s Gold Rush

Thursday, October 15th, 2009

If you’re rushing toward mobile advertising, you’d better check the local numbers first.

The gold rush is definitely on. It’s the new-new thing. But it sounds a lot like 10 years ago, when everyone was rushing toward the Web. Many people starved on the journey or died when the mine collapsed in 2000.

The headlines scream big numbers for mobile. Here’s one of our own: Mobile advertising to jump 33% in 2010, from $1.6 billion to $2.6 billion (Borrell Associates, Oct. 2009).

Few people seem to understand how that translates down to, say, Knoxville, Tenn., or Montgomery, Ala.

Before you charge up the iPod and hitch the wagons, consider this: The amount spent by advertisers on mobile devices in most markets will likely be in the tens of thousands of dollars next year for applications like couponing, mobile video, and text messaging. That’s barely enough to support software licensing fees, let alone salaries and sales commissions. Overall, we’re estimating that local mobile advertising will hit about $500 million in 2010. Still sounds like a lot – until you start looking down into individual markets.

Let’s take Knoxville. We’re estimating that the total mobile advertising expenditure in Knoxville next year to be about $9 million for the full Designated Marketing Area (DMA). For the Central Business District (CBD), the figure is less than half that.

But wait – that’s TOTAL. The LOCAL portion of that – spent by businesses in Knoxville – is somewhere around 20% of that. And for an application like mobile couponing, you’re looking at one-half of one percent of the total spending, of which 33% is local. I’ll do the math for you: Mobile couponing in Knoxville will fetch less than $10,000 next year. The numbers look relatively the same for other markets and applications. In Atlanta, local mobile text-messaging sales come to about $6.5 million (not bad, but remember, it’s Atlanta), and local mobile couponing should come in at about $100,000 in total spending next year. In Cincinnati, mobile couponing looks to be about a $40,000 local opportunity, and in Montgomery it might be about $10,000.

All of this is to say, temper your expectations. Timing is important. Now’s the time for experimentation and “placeholders” in the mobile space, but overinvesting time and money might cause a premature scale-back when the CFO realizes there isn’t enough money to support the effort.

Mobile is, indeed, a growth category with a lot of marketing opportunity. I definitely wouldn’t ignore it, but I also wouldn’t buy the hype.

(For a list of mobile ad spending estimates for each of the 210 U.S. DMAs for 2009 and 2010, see Appendix C in our recently published “2010 Local Interactive Advertising Outlook.”

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The “Category Killer” Strategy

Monday, September 14th, 2009

Last week’s passing of Frank Batten, the founder of Landmark Communications, reminded me of a small insight he had about the Internet back in 1996 that rings true today.

Frank was participating in a meeting that I was leading as a vice president trying to navigate this new thing called the Internet. We were strategizing what we might do with our properties – The Weather Channel, Auto Trader, Antique Trader magazine, TV stations and daily newspapers. The discussion led to all the extra money we might make at Auto Trader by charging dealers an extra $5 per listing. As we were rubbing our hands together, Frank gently weighed in.

There’s no barrier to entry on the Internet, he observed. No million-dollar printing press to prevent any fool from competing, no FCC license like you might find in TV or radio, no cable franchise to form a protective moat around your business. So in that scenario, the only strategic competitive advantage seems to be size. Frank wondered whether we might need to get big fast instead of limiting the number of listings to only those dealers who would accept the $5 fee. Placing all listings online, he suggested, might give us an immediate “category killer” for autos.

He was spot-on. Within 18 months, Autotrader.com was born. It immediately became a category killer. Today it is (by far) the No. 1 automotive Web site in listings and revenue, with more than 3 million vehicle listings and more than $600 million in revenue. While most automotive sites suffered horribly in 2008, Autotrader.com grew 20 percent and actually surpassed revenue from the Auto Trader books.

Frank’s strategy was a great one. It not only explains the success of sites such as Craigslist, which is generating more than $100 million off “free listings,” but also probably foretells the disappointment that awaits those who expect to find success as a “category killer” in local content by charging users to access it.

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