Posts Tagged ‘Borrell Associates’

Is Google going down?

Sunday, November 1st, 2009

So what sets our Top 3 choices — Local.com, Yodle and Yellowbook.com — apart from the pack in terms of revenue growth this year?

These companies have defied gravity by focusing on selling the fastest growing ad categories:  search advertising, online directory listings, and streaming video. They also act as marketing consultants and can help small businesses with all the online marketing tools and advice they might need. They’ll put together a Web site for your business, offer complete analytics, online upgrades through a dashboard or if the advertiser gets stuck — they can just pick up the phone and talk to someone.

Google's in the crosshairs

Setting sights on Google

These companies are poised to beat the pants off traditional media because they see the gap that very few legacy outlets have been willing to commit to — the service gap. I mean, at most newspaper sites if a small business says to the account executive, “I need a way to collect e-mail,” the AE will probably send them to Constant Contact.  The right response should be, “Let’s set up a promotion to collect e-mails then we start mailing your list with specials.”

But, how can a traditional media outlet even compete, when according to our research, barely 60% of them have an online-only AE? That other 40% are trudging into advertisers’ offices with worries about cannibalization of the traditional product.

Back to the Top 3 — these company’s models are very similar and focus on soup-to-nuts interactive marketing for the small business. They have an actual phone number posted on their Web site. (Just try and find a phone number for Google.) In fact, this service-oriented model could disrupt Google, because small businesses need a figurative hand-holding. There is no face of Google and if I were them I’d begin to worry about that. They become vulnerable as advertisers begin to find other companies willing to lend a hand to pull them out of the service gap.

When I go into a market for a local media site and make an online marketing presentation to their potential advertisers, the small businesses are packing in and they are craving to have their questions about online marketing answered. They want to know what their business peers are spending, they want to know why their display ad doesn’t get clicked through and they want to know about the ROI. It is clear that you have to show a small business the whole online marketing picture and that’s exactly what these Top 3 are doing.

Plus these three are going after the most lucrative online ad spending business categories. Our own research data has identified that in most local markets these are lawyers, healthcare providers and home improvement, to name a few. But too many traditional media outlets in local markets are still calling on their traditional advertisers, which are not usually in these categories.

The Top 3 have been doing their research and now are methodically going out to hunt and to plug the service gap in local online advertising. They may have Google in their crosshairs.

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Radio lags, but shouldn’t

Saturday, October 24th, 2009

I’m puzzled by the radio industry. As I wrote in a recent Inside Radio column, it has the greatest potential and the weakest realization of the Internet’s possibilities.

Our most recent assessment of the radio industry’s efforts shows that it is on track to get $231 million from local online ad sales this year, up 5% from 2008. Sounds like a lot, until you consider that competitors in the TV, newspaper, yellow pages space are getting more than $1 billion each from local online sales.

Despite radio’s potential, I don’t see the industry achieving more than a 2% share of online advertising anytime soon. Our forecast calls for radio to see a slight uptick next year in interactive sales, growing 15% to $265 million. (This is just for local radio stations; if you add online sales from national radio sites like CBSRadio.com and ESPNRadio.com, the overall total comes to about $380 million this year.)

Radio Stations Local Online Revenue 2003-2012

Radio Stations Local Online Revenue 2003-2012

The “potential” comes from the fact that radio has the second-largest number of feet-on-the-street sellers of local advertising – about 18,000 in all. Newspapers have the most at 31,000, and yellow pages the third-largest sales force at about 14,000. But the radio industry also has something that no other local media competitor has: The only daily produced local entertainment program, and a deep understanding of social networking. Think of the strong affinities that form around music genres such as country, classical, adult contemporary, hip-hop, sports talk, politics, and hard rock.

Isn’t the Internet about social networking? Aren’t advertisers turning to the Internet for ways to promote themselves and connect with “engaged” niche audiences like this?

Radio operators know this business model well. A few are indeed leading the way, like Long Island Radio Group’s money-saving and coupon site, www.yourli.com. The group has branched out beyond the CallLetter.com mindset and is using the Web to reach into the space once dominated by newspapers and direct mail. Radio One is also leading with sites like www.elev8.com and www.blackplanet.com.

I wish others would take the cue.

NOTE: If you’re interested in hearing more, I’ll be highlighting some of the top performers in the industry at the Radio Ink Forecast Summit Dec. 8 in New York. If you’re planning to attend and would like to meet, please let me know. We’ll also, we’ll be delving deeper into radio’s opportunity and highlighting a few of the industry’s most innovative stations during our own conference in February. Hope to see you there!

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The rumors of newspapers’ death

Thursday, August 6th, 2009

You might think it takes a great deal of chutzpah to say that newspapers will see a mild rebound over the next several years. But all it really takes is a close examination of the trends and cycles, and a deep understanding of the history of electronic media.

So here are our latest projections: Newspapers will be down this year, then they’ll start going back up. We expect a 2.4% rebound in newspaper advertising in 2010, and continued single-digit increases over the next several years. By 2014, newspaper ad revenues will be up about 8.7% over 2009 levels. While national newspaper advertising will do just fine, we foresee the greatest growth in local print – going from $8.9 billion this year to $10.1 billion, a 13.4% increase.

True, it all equates to more of a dead-cat bounce than anything else. And even at 2014 levels of just under $30 billion, newspaper advertising won’t be anything near the $55 billion we saw earlier this decade. Nor will it ever return to that level.

The fact is, newspapers reached their peak 91 years ago as two publishers battled over the presidency. On Nov. 2, 1920, in the first-ever radio news broadcast, KDKA delivered the results: Warren Harding beat James Cox. Electronic media was born, as was the business of writing obituaries for the newspaper industry.

The long history of electronic media has proven that there’s never a one-for-one exchange. People don’t go to the Web to “read a newspaper,” much the way they don’t turn on the TV set to watch “radio with pictures.” Radio forced newspapers in the 1920s to become more local. TV’s expansion into evening news in the 1960s forced afternoon newspapers out of business. The Internet sucked the life out of newspapers’ classified advertising and as the number of pages shrank, forced newspapers to find ways to become more interesting, more relative to their audiences.

The latest mediamorphosis of newspapers is almost complete. This once-fat, gray caterpillar that we knew as the “major daily newspaper” is turning into a smaller, more delicate, colorful local magazine, with fair prospects for growth. The smaller newspapers are firmly entrenched in their niche of providing rich local content that people seem to prefer in print – rather than screen – format. Our local newspaper, the Virginia Gazette in Williamsburg, is actually growing circulation and is thick with advertising supplements.

We may be dead wrong. The entire industry might die, and scores of papers might go belly-up over the next year. I’d like you to mark your calendar for today’s date, 2010, and see if that’s the case, or if we wound up being right.

I welcome your comments and debate on this issue.

Download the memo.

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You Need Online Reps to Drive Online Sales (Doh!)

Wednesday, July 29th, 2009

Whenever I make a presentation, one of the biggest laughs comes when I show a cartoon of a man explaining a plunging line on a flip chart. The caption reads, “The dip in sales seems to coincide with the decision to eliminate the sales staff.” We just completed a survey of 382 local ad sales managers that shows something just as dramatic. Sites with online-only sales reps make substantially more than those who rely exclusively on their seasoned print or broadcast sales staffs.

51335This revelation should come as no surprise to online managers. They’ve been telling us all along that print and broadcast reps “just don’t get it.” It’s not meant to impugn their intelligence; it’s just that those reps have their hands full trying to maintain existing customers. Online managers tell us regularly that they can drive revenues faster with a sales staff whom they can actually fire for not meeting sales goals. Our vice president of sales training, Bill Caudill, tells us that, after a training session, 30% of the reps “get it” and actually go out and sell online advertising. After three months, he says, half of them forget it.

More on the research. We asked front-line sales managers across the U.S. and Canada to take a 12-question survey about sales compensation, number of reps, online revenues, and related issues. We’ll publish the full results in mid-August. Respondents were split among those representing radio, TV, yellow pages, newspapers and Internet pure-play companies. Overall, 41% said they relied exclusively on “legacy media” reps to sell online advertising. Wow, what a mistake. I don’t think anyone can cite a single example of a sales staff selling two competing products and getting a significant share in both. It doesn’t happen, and no amount of digital pixie dust sprinkled over a print or broadcast sales staff will change that truism.

This, by the way, doesn’t mean that print or broadcast reps should NOT be selling online advertising. They should be trained to sell as much as they can. You don’t want to leave that money on the table. But relying exclusively or too heavily on legacy media reps is a quest to achieve mediocrity.

The most startling bit of information from the research is this: Of those with reps dedicated exclusively to selling online products, 46% of the sites were making $1 million or more. Of those that relied solely on their print or broadcast reps, 14% of the sites were making $1 million or more.

One more result from the survey: Of those who rely exclusively on legacy-media reps to sell online advertising, 49.7% said those reps exhibited an “average” or “poor” understanding of how interactive media could serve advertisers.

I rest my case.

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