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Posts Tagged ‘newspapers’

The Damaging Mantra of Convergence

Monday, March 15th, 2010

I had a spirited panel debate in Orlando recently with three individuals from newspaper companies who were hell-bent on proving that convergence sales forces worked.   When it was over, I was more convinced than ever that local media companies have internal Rasputins who are hypnotizing them into forgetting the past.

Unfortunately, many newspaper companies are on a path to remain, well, newspaper companies. Unlike their predecessors in the 1920s who leapt into radio with separate staffs and in the 1950s who leapt into local TV with separate staffs, many legacy media companies aren’t going to make this particular new media transformation.  They have either not read or completely forgotten the principal lesson of disruptive innovation: When a disruptor comes along, the winner is virtually always the organization that pursues the new venture with separate resources.

A lot of local media companies – newspapers, TV, radio, yellow pages and cable –labor under the delusion that their existing print or broadcast staffs are all they need to tackle the Internet.  While I believe that these legacy staffs can develop online content and sell online advertising, there’s overwhelming proof that they’re merely enhancing the core business, not building a new one. Those who have devoted significant and separate resources to the Internet have a far better chance of creating new value for their organizations.  McClatchy, for instance, derives about half of its online revenue from new, non-print advertisers; Fisher Communications in Seattle is outsourcing much of its sales to a separate telemarketing sales force and now has more than 2,000 advertisers – almost none of them broadcast advertisers.  They are creating new value, not shoring up old value, for their companies.

I’d really like to see newspapers win this game.  I started out as a reporter and editor, and the only board that I sit on is the Suburban Newspapers of America board of directors.   But I’ve seen newspapers continue to believe in this thing called convergence – that their print reporters and print salespeople have all the bandwidth they need to tackle this on their own.  They do not.  They need help, and a lot of it.  I’m afraid for newspapers, which I why I keep pounding the desk on this issue.  Newspapers had a 44% share of all locally spent online advertising back in 2004.  In 2009, they had a 23% share.   Competitors with a different strategy – and a lot more time on their hands to compete – are gobbling up all the growth.

Meanwhile, quite a few publishers are rushing to lock down their Web sites by allowing access only to paying subscribers, or looking for riches in eBooks.  A case in point is the Newport (R.I.) Daily News, a 12,000-circulation paper that started charging $35 a month nine months ago for online access.  The goal, as stated by the publisher, was to “drive people back to the printed paper.”  Another is the 23,000-circulation Valley Morning Star in Harlingen, Texas.  The publisher says the pay wall was instituted to “allow greater value to our many loyal print-edition subscribers by not giving away the news to non-subscribers.”

I wonder what would have happened if these publishers were around a half-century ago. Would they have tried to shut down their companies’ new media ventures at the time — TV stations — for fear that local news broadcasts were eroding newspaper circulation?   TV did erode newspaper circulation, just as the Internet most certainly does the same.  New data from Pew Research this week shows just how unwilling people are to pay for news online:  82% said they’d go elsewhere if a site erected a tollgate.  If you dissect the numbers a bit more closely, the figure is actually closer to 93%. 

I don’t want newspaper executives to say – like Encyclopedia Britannica executives said in 1996 – We have the most respected brand.  We have quality content.  People will pay for quality content.  We can’t continue to lose subscriptions by giving away all our valuable content.  Britannica thought this was a convergence play as well.  They completely missed something like Google because their internal managers saw the Internet opportunity from an internal perspective.

MTV, Barnes & Noble, and scores of others are in the same camp – thinking they can seize the opportunity under the same brand and the same managers.   Do 18- to 24-year-olds go to MTV.com?  No, they go to Facebook.  When you want to buy a book do you go to BarnesAndNoble.com?  No, you go to Amazon.com.  

The strategy at Britannica, MTV and Barnes & Noble blinded them to the bigger opportunity, and the strategy at many newspapers to use one combined print-and-online sales force to sell newspaper Web sites is likewise blinding them to a bigger opportunity.

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5 Things to Watch–and Act On

Monday, December 14th, 2009

We have issued our Top 5 recommendations for local online advertising in 2010. They’re pretty straightforward:  Identify and copy the fastest growers, start partnering with other companies, offer “promotions” services to advertisers, monitor but be cautious about mobile, and dive into video advertising. But I thought I’d also offers some predictions for 2010 that might startle you.

First, I’m excited to announce that we have a new list of speakers we’ll be announcing this week for our Feb. 8-9 conference in New York. In the spirit of identifying and copying the fastest-growing local online advertising companies, we’ve gone to the trouble of identifying them for you — and getting their top executives to stand up at our conference and tell you why they’ve become the new darlings of Main Street.  We’ve also secured speakers from companies like Fisher Broadcasting, which has launched 43 hyperlocal sites in Seattle that are fast becoming profitable, as well as leading revenue producers in email, video, promotions and paid search.  Wait ’til you see the final agenda.

OK, on to the startling things.  I believe that 2010 will see a clear divide between the local media companies that are crossing the gorge and those being left behind.  Positive growth in Internet revenues will be the delineator.  Those who continue to see declines will clearly have tied their Internet operations too closely to their legacy media companies or will have formulated products that don’t resonate with Main Street advertisers.  Other predictions:

Largest Local Online Advertising Companies, 2009

Largest Local Online Advertising Companies, 2009

1.  Newspapers rebound.  Look for a 2-4% increase in newspaper ad revenues next year.  Smaller papers might fare better.  Those who make the digital transition will see up to 20% of their total ad revenues coming from the Internet next year.  The Yahoo-newspaper partnerships will generate $200 million to $300 million in geo-targeted banner sales.

2.  Local Internet advertising grows 5-9% next year, making it harder than ever for many companies to ride whatever tide is left.

3.  Mobile advertising skyrockets (on a small base), but local ad buys remain short-term and experimental.

4.  Cable companies dive deeper into local Internet sales.  Look for acquisitions and partnerships like we saw with the Yellow Pages in the early to mid-1990s.

5.  Yellow Pages continue a precipitous decline, high single digits but perhaps double digits for some.  Meanwhile, their Internet revenues will grow to comprise one-fifth of ad revenues.

Predictions are no more than educated guesses, so I really didn’t want to spend too much time on speculation.  The recommendations are key to what I think you should be watching.  The largest local online advertising companies are interesting to observe, but the fastest-growing ones above $25 million in revenue are the ones worth studying — and copying.

I hope you can make it to our conference.  We’re going to spend a lot of time dissecting these companies and learning why local advertisers have become so enamored of what they’re offering.

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The Lady in the Sweat Suit

Saturday, November 7th, 2009

I was in a 7-Eleven last week and watched a middle-aged woman in a sweat suit pay $1.50 for the Sunday newspaper, then walk outside and dump half of it in the trashcan. Care to guess what part she dumped?

Like 37% of newspaper readers (according to Scarborough Research), she’s interested in the advertising. Her $1.50 was likely to have bought her at least $5 in coupons that she’ll redeem at the grocery store, Rite Aid or Wal-Mart. Smart purchase.

While most of the newspaper industry frets over giving away its precious news content, its most vulnerable franchise is produced by the advertising department. Newspapers should thank their lucky stars that the woman in the sweat suit did what she did. She could have stayed at home and gone to SalesCircular.com or one of the many other sites that would have given her the same thing. If she were in Long Island, she might get her coupons from www.yourli.com, an incredibly useful and popular site run by a group of radio stations. If she were in Bakersfield, Calif., she might go to www.shopkern.com, a shopping and coupon site run by KERO-TV.

I hope publishers learn soon that their most important content isn’t its local news.  It’s advertising. The issue was underscored last week when the president of the Newspaper Association of America sent a e-mail warning that J.C. Penney’s and Sears were threatening to pull their circulars because of lower circulation and the industry’s inability to reach younger demos. Circulars, he said, account for half of all newspaper retail advertising.

Local-allocation

I wouldn’t count newspapers out. Despite layoffs, bankruptcies circulation scandals and thinning classified sections, they are still king when it comes to local advertising. The crown is tarnished, but at the end of the day newspapers still control the largest slice of the $143 billion local ad pie, 26%. The next-closest share: Interactive at 14%. Then broadcast TV at 12%, then Direct Mail at 11%. Advertisers know about the lady in the sweat suit, and they’re eager to meet her on Saturdays and Sundays when she’s got her wallet and credit cards ready.  Newspapers remain the No. 1 source for coupons, representing 50% of all coupon sources.  The Internet represents 11%, but is certainly growing.

Newspapers are vulnerable, but their managers aren’t dumb. Gannett owns ShopLocal.com, an Internet distribution mechanism for its print circulars now plugged into all its newspaper and TV sites. The Suburban Newspapers of America this fall launched www.zip2save.com and is signing up smaller newspapers across the country. It’s modeled after www.flyerland.ca, a highly successful site created by Metroland Newspapers in Canada.

The debate over charging for news content is silly. Rupert Murdoch may be carrying the battle flag, but the legions of publishers following him over the hill appear to be heading into the sunset.  Charging for online access may slow the erosion in print circulation, but it’s never going to lead the industry to riches. Understanding the behavior of the lady in the sweat suit will.

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