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Borrell Recasts its Local Advertising 2015 Forecast

Borrell Associates has recast its 2014 and 2015 local advertising forecast, painting a rosy picture overall but a fairly bleak one for traditional media. Earlier forecasts by Borrell have shown mixed levels of growth or decline for expenditures on print and broadcast media.

“The future we all knew was coming has shown up,” said Corey Elliott, director of research. “The days of saying things like ‘mobile is the next big thing’ and ‘targeted digital ads are going to be big’ are over. In the next two years, we will see a tremendous growth in these ad formats, eclipsing any gains in any other media – and even taking away a bit from other digital formats.”

Borrell’s new forecasts are based on an assessment of U.S. ad spending during the first half of 2014. The company focuses on the $104.0 billion spend by locally-based businesses across 3,000 U.S. counties. Here are some highlights:

  • Ad spending on print and broadcast media is forecast to decline a total of 3% next year.
  • Online advertising will grow a whopping 44%.
  • Two big online formats – paid search and untargeted banner advertising – are forecast to fall 4% and 13%, respectively.
  • Targeted display advertising will envelop the local marketplace. By the end of 2015, one of every five dollars spend on local advertising will be spent on targeted banners.
  • Newspaper print advertising will decline 11.1% this year and 4.8% next year. Borrell’s previous forecasts had said declines would end and that expenditures would level out, but not grow.

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About Borrell Associates Inc.

Borrell Associates Inc. provides local-market data to more than 1,200 media clients via its Compass product, seen at www.adspending.com. Borrell tracks and forecasts advertising expenditures in any of the more than 3,000 counties and provinces in North America and the U.K. and helps clients develop strategies to grow share. Borrell also publishes regular analyses of major local advertising trends for its clients and holds the largest gathering of local online media executives every spring in New York. The company is headquartered in Williamsburg, Va.

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