2009 will be the first in many in which some components of interactive advertising show little or no growth, or may even decline. The changes foreseen are not cyclical, and show no sign of improving quickly, irrespective of upward movement in the nation’s economy.
The oldest newspaper, radio, TV and “city.com” Web sites turned 14 years old this year. In that short time span they have evolved from being interesting experiments to become their parent organizations’ center of attention and financial saviors. Some of them now generate millions in revenue and significant profits, and have high potential for continued growth – begging the question of just how much these local Web sites might be worth.
The 2008 World Association of Newspapers revenue benchmarking survey includes data from newspapers in all major regions of the globe. It covers print and online revenues, the key verticals, and trends over the past three years. This unique resource is a special benefit provided to our subscribers. It is for internal use only and is not to be circulated outside your organization.
Print yellow page directories face the most uncertain future of all media. We’re estimating that the yellow pages industry will lose $39% of its in annual revenue over the next five years, amounting to a loss of $5 billion in annual revenue by 2013. Meanwhile, there is a simultaneous increase in the industry’s “addressable market” of search engine advertising and local online video, giving publishers a larger cache of advertising products to sell. Video shows the most promise, growing from a $1.4 billion category this year to $7.6 billion in 2013.
Local media Web sites are sharing in the $13.1b local online ad revenue pie this year, but Internet pure-plays continue to gobble up the most. While newspaper sites have gone on the attack, we see some dramatic share grabs from other media online.
In 2007, businesses spent $806 billion to get the word out about their products, services and companies. Most of it, $483 billion went toward promotions – non-advertising marketing expenses that range from discounts, contests, coupons, rebates and sponsorships to white papers, public relations and viral marketing campaigns.
With a third of the working population reaching retirement age over the next decade we expect a huge demand to fill all types of jobs. Over the next four years, we expect total recruitment spending to increase 25%, from $58 billion in 2008 to $73 billion in 2012. The prime beneficiary will be online media. Online spending will increase 23.5% to a record high of over $11 billion.
Politicians will spend $4.8 billion on political advertising this year, but don't expect much of that to land on the Web. Online media will get about $20 million, most of it going to search.