‘Tis the season for giving, and in that spirit Borrell Associates is pleased to make our 2010 mobile ad-spending estimates for more than 200 local markets our holiday gift to you – along with a little analysis as to what to expect next year. It’s free
Our latest report details the decline in online recruitment advertising this year, but we forecast a 20% increase for 2010. This report, "Recruitment Advertising Outlook 2010: A Jobless Recovery," comes with an Appendix that details local online ad spending projections by online ad formats (display, paid search, e-mail and video) in over 900 local markets.
Our new report, "Auto Advertising Outlook 2010: Running on Empty," brings good news for online advertising in 2010. Meanwhile, the rack publications and yellow pages will continue taking it on the chin. Overall, we expect the total U.S. ad spend for new cars to rise to $19.2 billion from the low of $18.4 billion in 2009.
It may be a horrible year for advertising overall, but not for local online – and certainly not for some companies seeing double- and even triple-digit growth for local operations. Local online advertising is growing at a 12% clip this year, and we’ve taken a look at 2010 and expect further growth. This report forecasts 2010 local online sales to hit $14.9 billion, or 5% higher than where we’re expecting things to end up this year. While mobile is a hot topic, we’re projecting it to be a relatively small category locally – only $500 million – in 2010.
While everyone’s been writing the obituary for the newspaper industry, our numbers are showing something entirely different. We’re expecting U.S. newspapers to see a decline in 2009, then a mild rebound over the next five years. Our latest projections call for a 2.4% increase in newspaper advertising in 2010, and low single-digit increases for several more years. Download our free memo describing our projections. We also offer a market-by-market estimate for newspaper spending in 2009 and 2014 for $295.
In our latest research and analysis paper we discover the local search-advertising marketplace may be headed for a shakeout where less-sophisticated affiliates and resellers of search advertising could see their business models collapse and their advertisers flee. Scooping up the business will be savvy affiliates and resellers who are able to optimize SEM performance through software tools and reporting that show actual ROI to advertisers.
The Internet has put another print medium in its crosshairs: direct mail. The popularity of e-mail marketing is set to skyrocket as a result. This report details our forecast for a dramatic 39% drop in direct mail and corresponding rise in e-mail advertising – which was already at $12.1 billion last year. E-mail, in fact, quietly became the No. 1 interactive advertising format last year, surpassing banners and search advertising.
Last year $12.6 billion was spent in online advertising by local advertisers. Sales were dominated by pure-play Internet companies with no ties to legacy media However, for the first time since we began tracking local shares in 2001, pure-play companies lost ground. It’s all outlined here in our 7th annual revenue survey of over 6,000 local Web sites.
Are small- and medium-sized business owners changing their spending habits? Are they abandoning traditional media for the Internet? Is the recession a tipping point for their ad spend?
2009 will be the first in many in which some components of interactive advertising show little or no growth, or may even decline. The changes foreseen are not cyclical, and show no sign of improving quickly, irrespective of upward movement in the nation’s economy.