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If you attended our conference in New York last month, you got a dose of what beacons may offer to local media. This memo expands on that topic. We’re issuing the memo because we think in-store beacons will eventually become ubiquitous and, combined with smart phones, are likely to thrust local marketing into yet another revolution. Hence, it’s a good time to read up on this topic.
Real estate agents and brokers, among the first to adapt to digital media 20 years ago, may have discovered the digital saturation point. In 2015, while other types of advertisers are increasing digital budgets, agents and brokers will be scaling back. Although a small amount (-2%) it indicates that they may have reached the optimal ratio of digital to non-digital expenditures. Our annual review of advertising and marketing trends takes a deep dive into how this category is changing over the next 5 years and how habits of millennials are creating a boom in real estate advertising.
If local advertising were a train, digital would be its locomotive, first-class passenger car and dining car. It continues to be responsible for nearly all growth in local advertising, barreling along at an accelerated rate of 40% last year and forecast rate of 42% this year. In this report, we’re examining digital advertising. We separate that into four basic formats: display, streaming, email and paid search. Display is further broken out into targeted and static display/ROS, and streaming is bro ken out between video and audio-only commercials.
In our fourth (and largest) survey of local ad-sales manager the digital divide is clear – 51% of digital media companies have at least one digital only AE on staff. Companies that employ digital-only sales reps — even one or two — tend to have far more digital revenue than those who don’t. There’s overwhelming evidence that a rep who sells two competing products always
winds up favoring one. And that could be bad news in both directions: For a media company focusing its traditional-media reps too much on digital sales ... or vice-versa.
Automotive is the second-largest advertising category, behind general merchandise stores, at $35.5 Billion. It’s a landmark year for digital advertising. For the first time, more than half of all advertising dollars will be spent on digital media.
Companies at the local level have begun spending vast amounts of money on the basic underlying services needed to support their digital marketing. Companies will spend over five times as much on digital marketing services than they will on digital advertising - costing them $501 billion this year.
This is a Client Memo for subscribers only. If you’ve been waiting for the real estate boom and a commensurate comeback in advertising, plan to wait a bit longer. The latest data now shows that the residential real estate boom is still little more than a few distant thunderclaps with spotty showers. In fact, home sales are likely to be down this year, and we’ve just made a downward adjustment to our forecast growth in real estate advertising – 7% higher this year compared with 17% in 2013.
This is a Client Memo for subscribers only! We wanted to give you a head’s up on some abrupt shifts in automotive advertising we’ve begun to notice. The good news is that auto advertising is up. By our projection, it will end up at 6.8% more than 2013. The bad news is, the longtime beneficiaries of automotive advertising – broadcast and print media – will experience exactly the opposite.
This year’s outlook on political advertising finds that more than $8 billion will be spent to influence voters across an estimated 30,000 local, state and national elections. Political advertising continues its growth jag, and the online portion seems poised to skyrocket. Our 16-page annual review includes 9 charts and graphics, plus an appendix of political ad spending by medium from 2005-2013, and forecasts to 2016.
The jobs picture has shifted radically from the time when employers gladly spent money to advertise openings. Our 2014 Recruitment Advertising Outlook details that shift. It lays out a scenario in which companies, while still spending $22 billion on advertising jobs, have begun ramping up their spending on their own advertising channels – like social media pages and their own websites. Online advertising is up nearly 19%, but expenditures on services is doubling.
The recession of 2008 initiated a jolt of media disruption that has forced widespread layoffs and even shutdowns. Consumers have cut usage radio, newspapers and magazines and yellow pages by 25% or more while increasing use of digital media by 65%. What’s in store over the next five years? This 41-page report is chock full of trending analysis for each medium. Find out who’s likely to thrives, and who merely survives.
After years of decline, Real Estate is finally on the rebound. It’s shaping up to be a $27.3 billion category, up nearly 10% from 2012. Our annual review of advertising and marketing trends takes a deep dive into how this category has been reshaped over the past 15 years. The big headlines: Spending on newspapers is no longer declining, spending on homes magazines is up 30%, and online ad spending – while up nearly 17% this year – is likely to begin flat-lining soon.
We have released our outlook for local digital advertising in the U.S. and Puerto Rico for 2014. The market numbers are accompanied by a memo describing what we're seeing ad midyear 2013. This memo is available to clients only and is not to be distributed publicly.
Wrenching changes in automotive advertising are forging a new landscape for local media. Broadcast media and newspapers are losing more ground, while online and direct mail are on the rise. Our annual report examines the underpinnings of those changes. It tracks historical shifts in automotive spending across each media type and issues forecasts for up to five years.
Having digital-only sales rep on staff lifts attitudes, increases understanding of digital products and increases digital revenues for traditional media companies. But competition is stiff to hire digital reps: Pureplay companies are offering 50% more base pay than traditional media companies. That’s the conclusion of our latest survey of 220 sales executives at radio, TV, newspaper, yellow pages and pureplay companies. Hiring of digital-only reps is back on the upswing, with 62% of media companies reporting that they have at least one on staff – up from 48% in 2011.
Annual Analysis: Benchmarking Local Online Media
Who's enjoying the biggest share of the $24 billion spent online by local businesses this year? This 50-page annual report includes 37 charts and graphs chronicling what's happening in local media's quest to conquer the digital frontier. It includes details not only revenues but also profitability for more than 6,000 Internet pureplay companies and traditional media digital ventures.
Wondering why so many companies are rushing to sell marketing services to SMBs? It’s because local advertisers have fallen deeply in love with promotions and “owned media.” Our latest report, “2013 Local Promotions Forecast,” details how advertisers are carving dollars from other budgets to invest in quick-reward marketing programs like discounts, coupons, contests, and loyalty programs. This year, local businesses are likely to spend a whopping 81% more on local promotions than they will on classic advertising – something that’s never happened before.
Banner ads and search engine advertising aren’t enough anymore. Small and medium-size businesses (SMBs) are snapping up a smorgasboard of services, from basic website hosting to SEO, social media and reputation management. This 17-page report takes a deep dive into the phenomenon of the Internet’s transformation from an advertising medium to an advertising utility.
In this memo to subscribers and clients, Gordon Borrell outlines our local online advertising is forecast for 2013 and lists the fastest-growing (and slowest) in digital sales so far this year. The memo details YTD digital advertising growth rates for 43 local media companies, as well as our forecast for online ad spending in 2013 by formats (video, banners, email, etc.). It also offers detail on our new Digital Marketing Regions (DMRs), with benchmarks based on the results of more than 1,600 companies to help clients determine their market potential. Two appendices and an Excel download include the full list of DMRs and the counties included in each of the 513 regions, plus the ad-spending levels.
Real Estate advertising will be a $23.7 billion category this year, down 16% from 2011. While virtually all media are suffering, expenditures on online media continue to grow, rising 15%. This year, 55% of all real estate advertising, or $13 billion, will be spent on online media. This 33-page report includes 24 charts and tables and is our annual outlook on the industry.
Co-op advertising has finally filtered into the digital media space to the tune of $1.7 billion in available dollars. Brand managers are offering programs for local retailers, subsidizing everything from banner ads to website development that help promote the brand. If you’re wondering how to tap into that lucrative stream or what small and medium businesses (SMBs) are doing with digital co-op, this is the report to read.
In our annual outlook, we estimate automotive advertising to hit $31 billion this year, about 14 percent of an increase over 2011. The biggest gainer? You guessed it, digital media. In fact, digital media will account for almost 90 percent of all automotive advertising growth this year as dealers and manufacturers drive more spending toward streaming video commercials, targeted social media ads and mobile. This 37-page report is our annual review of trends in both new and used car sales and the latest fluctuations in spending by manufacturers, dealers, dealer groups and private-party sellers.
Our 10th annual report documents offers benchmarking detail spanning more than 5,700 local media companies in the U.S. and Canada. Are yellow pages companies making the transition? How are Angie’s List, Groupon, Yelp and Craigslist and independent hyperlocal sites doing in the local online pureplay space? What should you be making in digital revenues if you’re a newspaper, cable system, TV station or radio station? Our 43-page report has it all – including two appendices listing 2011 and 2012 online ad spending for 210 markets.
This year will be the most expensive campaign year ever, at a whopping $9.8 billion, 40% higher than the last presidential campaign year. While other estimates are much lower, they fail to take into account , but about 13,000 state and local contests that will bring a bonanza of ad revenue for local media companies. Tallying the money spent on online media, direct mail, outdoor, radio and TV, 2012 political contests offer a big shot in the arm to media companies. The 20-page report shows “hotspot” markets across the U.S. and estimates market-by-market advertising levels for 210 localities and for each state.
There’s big change in the air for online recruitment advertising – a category that saw consistent double-digit growth for the past 15 years. With the economy still struggling against a straightjacket, there just aren’t that many jobs to advertise. And with so many candidates out there, recruiters barely need to advertise anyway. Basic media spending on recruitment advertising flattened out last year at $9.4 billion. We’re expecting that to fall 5.3 percent, to $8.9 billion this year. This 42-page annual report examines the recruitment landscape and offers deep detail on jobs and ad spending.
The rush is on to hire and train great AEs who can drive digital sales. But the big question is, how should they be paid, and how should multimedia sales staffs be organized? This 27-page report sheds light on what’s happening with the army of 81,000 local ad-sales reps in the U.S. as local media companies retool for the digital age. It includes 14 charts detailing the size of the various sales forces across traditional media and pureplay Internet companies, how many are “digital ready,” and their managers’ evaluations on their levels of effectiveness.
Local businesses have arrived en masse at the Social Media cocktail party. The sluggish economy has constricted their ad budgets, and posting messages on Facebook, YouTube and Twitter not only feels good, but also feels free. But it’s not. This report takes a deep dive into the attraction of social media to small and medium-size businesses (SMBs) and gauges their current levels of spending, forecast to double in 2012 and again in 2013.
Our latest report, “Budgeting for 2012: Local Online Advertising Forecasts and Key Growth Opportunities,” points to two amazing phenomenon. First, traditional media companies are gaining online share over pureplay Internet companies. And second, in a few short years, the vast majority of what we know as "online" will be served up on mobile devices. We are forecasting 18% growth next year as local online advertising goes from $15.7 billion to $18.5 billion in 2012. This report details the categories and formats pegged for growth, as well as individual market estimates.
Gain an understanding of the national results of the consumer and advertiser study. Receive valuable insights into consumer and advertising spending. Compare figures to your market to see how you compare to what's occurring across the US.
Main Street has gone “mobile,” adopting the latest new-media phenomenon at an alarming rate. Research indicates that half of all SMBs are hoping to jump on the mobile marketing bandwagon this year, driving combined spending on mobile advertising and promotions (including the ever-popular “deals”) over $1.2 billion this year. This 26-page report details the burst of interest by local businesses in using mobile devices to lure customers with proximity advertising, coupons and SMS offers. It offers 27 charts that show current and forecast trends for household penetration of mobile devices (including smartphones and tablets) and rich detail on local-business spending on mobile advertising and promotions.
Automotive advertising is finally on the rebound. Our annual look at this important ad segment pegs it at $22.6 billion this year, running about 7 percent ahead of last year. Our 2011 Local Automotive Advertising Outlook examines trends in new-car sales (down), used-car sales (up) and the underlying mechanics causing dealers to shift their spending toward channels like online media and cinema advertising. The report, which includes 20 charts and graphs, dives deeper into the online phenomenon, showing that auto dealers are the most aggressive local advertisers on the web, and that they’re likely to carry that mentality over to mobile media.
The downturn in the housing industry has forged deep changes in the way real estate professionals spend their ad dollars. Market indices point to a slow recovery in home sales, but the advertising recovery has already begun. Expenditures are forecast to increase 8 percent this year, to $21.8 billion. The most-favored medium is online, where agents, brokers, builders and mortgage lenders will plow $8.9 billion. That makes real estate the second-largest online advertising category. Our 56-page annual outlook examines housing trends, shifts in advertising between traditional print, online, broadcast and other channels, and takes a deep dive into what agents are doing – and thinking – about online marketing.
Despite the dearth of available jobs, recruitment marketing continues to grow – up an estimated 5.8% this year for all marketing expenditures and up 18.6% for online advertising. More than any other advertising category, recruitment has undergone the greatest transformation. Human resources professionals last year spent 57% of their advertising budgets on online media, principally to buy job postings or to access resume databases. That’s the largest share devoted to online for any advertising category. This report, “2011 Online Recruitment Marketing Outlook: Are the Jobs Ever Coming Back?,” represents our annual analysis of this important segment.
Our 9th annual, "Benchmarking Local Online Media: 2010 Survey," is out, delivering eye-popping insights on local online media revenues. Sites that focus on a particular category of content have begun to dominate the landscape, and many local operations that are the most successful are generating millions of dollars by selling a myriad of products beyond just banners. This industry paper analyzes revenue from nearly 4,600 local interactive operations and provides appendices listing market-by-market online ad spending by format, including spending on local coupons.
Local media companies looking for greener pastures have turned to Main Street shops, hoping to find gold. In our survey of 2,872 small and medium size businesses (SMBs), we found that they plan to increase their ad budgets 4.5% this year, but their online budgets 29%. The biggest gainers: email and social media advertising, including spending on their own websites. While 86% of SMBs reported having a website last year, that’s expected to go to 91% in 2011 – meaning there are very few left without a web presence.
Everybody’s trying to reach a local audience these days, but our new report finds that hyperlocal might also mean hypersmall. The big attraction to “local” comes from the fact that local websites hold more value because their site visitors make the vast majority household purchases within a few miles of their homes. Our new report digs into a few disturbing aspects of local site traffic, including data that show that the unique visitor-to-actual-people ratio is nearly 4 to 1.
After years of unfulfilled promise, local ad networks have reached maturity. Stories of CPMs doubling and large “spot” buys mean that the floodgates have begun opening for networks that offer targeted banners down to local websites. It may mean a bonanza for local media managers, many of whom operate sites with half their inventory unsold. The biggest beneficiaries are likely to be newspaper, TV and yellow pages websites, which control 80% of all local banner advertising, as well as the ad networks themselves.
Since 2001, Borrell Associates has been a pioneer in scrutinizing local media and the impact of disruptive technology on its ad revenues. In 2003, its landmark report on the subject, done in conjunction with then Harvard Assistant Professor Clark Gilbert, a protégé of Clay Christensen, was released. The report was a major wake-up call to the country’s local media giants. A 2007, condensed reprint of “Disruptive Technology and Local Media” is available for free.
Retail sales will dip this year, but that hasn’t stopped retailers from plowing more money into marketing. Retail ad expenditures are up 9% and their promotions spend is up 16.6%. This 60-page report, "U.S. Retailing: Sales, Marketing and the Move to Online," details game-changing shifts. While traditional advertising is forecast to increase 5% over the next five years, promotions and non-ad marketing will increase at five times that rate. And the biggest gainer of all, of course, will be interactive marketing. The report includes an appendix that details online and offline marketing expenditure trends for 34 individual business categories.
The power of proximity-based, or location-based, advertising poses radical challenges to the mass media model of aggregating local audiences and selling them to local advertisers. Our latest report, “Proximity-Based Marketing: Mobile Devices Untether Advertising from Media,” examines the latest in a 15-page industry paper that gauges mobile proximity-based advertising at $200 million this year, swelling to $760 million in 2011 and springing to $6 billion by 2015.
Mobile apps are all the rage. More than a half-million apps are downloaded every single hour, and the average smartphone user has 22. But the future is cloudy for those trying to tackle the mobile universe via an app. Research shows that after six months, only one of those original 22 apps is still in use. On top of that, a debate is raging as to whether apps will survive a more sophisticated mobile browser fueled by HTML5.
Social networks are increasing their ad revenues at a tremendous pace and before long it could take a toll on ad spending at local media Web sites. In this latest paper, we track the advertising and promotion spending for social networking as well the new rules of marketing under this new “anti-mass” media. Included in the paper is the latest local and national ad and promotions spending projections for social networks by DMA.
Mobile marketing is exploding, fueled by an installed consumer base of 234 million cell phone users and the quick uptake of smart phones, now in the hands of nearly one-third of consumers. The implications at the local level are enormous. This report examines mobile marketing, breaking down the difference between mobile advertising and mobile promotions, and examines what appears to be the first “killer app” for mobile: couponing. It is the first – and a scene-setter – in a series of reports we will publish this year on the local mobile marketing phenomenon.
It’s an “even” year, which means another uptick in political advertising. That’s good news for broadcasters – where most of political advertising winds up – and good news for just about everybody else, too, because of a recent Supreme Court ruling that should open the door to about $400 million more political ad spending this year. A decade-long uptick in political spending has forced a crooked smile on our forecast. It starts at $4.2 billion this year and zig-zags up to $41 billion in the 2012 presidential election year. Online is still barely 1% of all political advertising, just $44 million this year. Our 24-page report includes 12 charts and an appendix estimating political ad spending in each of the 210 DMAs.
Has the mighty real estate advertising category peaked out for online media? Our "2010 Real Estate Outlook" describes major trends in spending by agents, brokers, apartment owners and mortgage lenders and issues our forecast for this year. This ad category declined 20% last year, from $24.4 billion to $19.6 billion. We're forecasting a mild bounce back in 2010 at 3% growth. Our annual assessment of this important category describes the situation and offers 20 charts and graphs detailing how real estate ad dollars are shifting. It also includes appendices offering detailed data on U.S. ad spending in this category, as well as a market-by-market estimates of national and local spending for 210 cities. Don't forget to sign up for the Webinar to discuss this report on Thursday, 2/4, 2pm to 3pm ET for just $75 (free for subscribers).
Coupon use is up an amazing 36% over last year, but retailers are beginning to increase their use of the Internet as a distribution channel, particularly for higher-priced items. While the Internet still accounts for less than 5% of all coupon redemptions, Internet coupons represent 20% of the value of those redemptions. Our latest research quantifies why so many media companies are redoubling their efforts on launching coupon and shopping Web sites and mobile applications.
‘Tis the season for giving, and in that spirit Borrell Associates is pleased to make our 2010 mobile ad-spending estimates for more than 200 local markets our holiday gift to you – along with a little analysis as to what to expect next year. It’s free
Our latest report details the decline in online recruitment advertising this year, but we forecast a 20% increase for 2010. This report, "Recruitment Advertising Outlook 2010: A Jobless Recovery," comes with an Appendix that details local online ad spending projections by online ad formats (display, paid search, e-mail and video) in over 900 local markets.
Our new report, "Auto Advertising Outlook 2010: Running on Empty," brings good news for online advertising in 2010. Meanwhile, the rack publications and yellow pages will continue taking it on the chin. Overall, we expect the total U.S. ad spend for new cars to rise to $19.2 billion from the low of $18.4 billion in 2009.
It may be a horrible year for advertising overall, but not for local online – and certainly not for some companies seeing double- and even triple-digit growth for local operations. Local online advertising is growing at a 12% clip this year, and we’ve taken a look at 2010 and expect further growth. This report forecasts 2010 local online sales to hit $14.9 billion, or 5% higher than where we’re expecting things to end up this year. While mobile is a hot topic, we’re projecting it to be a relatively small category locally – only $500 million – in 2010.
While everyone’s been writing the obituary for the newspaper industry, our numbers are showing something entirely different. We’re expecting U.S. newspapers to see a decline in 2009, then a mild rebound over the next five years. Our latest projections call for a 2.4% increase in newspaper advertising in 2010, and low single-digit increases for several more years. Download our free memo describing our projections. We also offer a market-by-market estimate for newspaper spending in 2009 and 2014 for $295.
In our latest research and analysis paper we discover the local search-advertising marketplace may be headed for a shakeout where less-sophisticated affiliates and resellers of search advertising could see their business models collapse and their advertisers flee. Scooping up the business will be savvy affiliates and resellers who are able to optimize SEM performance through software tools and reporting that show actual ROI to advertisers.
The Internet has put another print medium in its crosshairs: direct mail. The popularity of e-mail marketing is set to skyrocket as a result. This report details our forecast for a dramatic 39% drop in direct mail and corresponding rise in e-mail advertising – which was already at $12.1 billion last year. E-mail, in fact, quietly became the No. 1 interactive advertising format last year, surpassing banners and search advertising.
Last year $12.6 billion was spent in online advertising by local advertisers. Sales were dominated by pure-play Internet companies with no ties to legacy media However, for the first time since we began tracking local shares in 2001, pure-play companies lost ground. It’s all outlined here in our 7th annual revenue survey of over 6,000 local Web sites.
Are small- and medium-sized business owners changing their spending habits? Are they abandoning traditional media for the Internet? Is the recession a tipping point for their ad spend?
2009 will be the first in many in which some components of interactive advertising show little or no growth, or may even decline. The changes foreseen are not cyclical, and show no sign of improving quickly, irrespective of upward movement in the nation’s economy.
The oldest newspaper, radio, TV and “city.com” Web sites turned 14 years old this year. In that short time span they have evolved from being interesting experiments to become their parent organizations’ center of attention and financial saviors. Some of them now generate millions in revenue and significant profits, and have high potential for continued growth – begging the question of just how much these local Web sites might be worth.
Print yellow page directories face the most uncertain future of all media. We’re estimating that the yellow pages industry will lose $39% of its in annual revenue over the next five years, amounting to a loss of $5 billion in annual revenue by 2013. Meanwhile, there is a simultaneous increase in the industry’s “addressable market” of search engine advertising and local online video, giving publishers a larger cache of advertising products to sell. Video shows the most promise, growing from a $1.4 billion category this year to $7.6 billion in 2013.
The 2008 World Association of Newspapers revenue benchmarking survey includes data from newspapers in all major regions of the globe. It covers print and online revenues, the key verticals, and trends over the past three years. This unique resource is a special benefit provided to our subscribers. It is for internal use only and is not to be circulated outside your organization.
Local media Web sites are sharing in the $13.1b local online ad revenue pie this year, but Internet pure-plays continue to gobble up the most. While newspaper sites have gone on the attack, we see some dramatic share grabs from other media online.
In 2007, businesses spent $806 billion to get the word out about their products, services and companies. Most of it, $483 billion went toward promotions – non-advertising marketing
expenses that range from discounts, contests, coupons, rebates and sponsorships to white papers, public relations and viral marketing campaigns.
With a third of the working population reaching retirement age over the next decade we expect a huge demand to fill all types of jobs.
Over the next four years, we expect total recruitment spending to increase 25%, from $58 billion in 2008 to $73 billion in 2012. The prime beneficiary will be online media. Online spending will increase 23.5% to a record high of over $11 billion.
This complete U.S. WebAudit™ is our FINAL estimate for 2007 and supersedes all others. This report gives you essential online ad spending data for the whole country. We can configure a WebAudit™ for any market by DMA, city or county(ies).
Politicians will spend $4.8 billion on political advertising this year, but don't expect much of that to land on the Web. Online media will get about $20 million, most of it going to search.
The growth of online media buying by local businesses -- particularly for paid search, directories and video -- has outstripped our expectations and has driven our estimates significantly higher for 2008.
Real estate advertising retrenched in 2007. While this $11 billion advertising category shows signs of contraction, the interesting story is what’s happening to the internal components. Our report assesses both current trends and future patterns of how agents and brokers will spend on traditional advertising, as well as what they’re investing in their own Web sites right now.
Six years ago publishers were willing to accept the proposition that “information wants to be free.” Today, fueled by the dot-bomb debacle and new guidelines from the Audit Bureau of Circulations, publishers appear more eager to embrace the notion that “information providers want to be paid.” This turnaround threatens to dilute the accomplishments of a remarkable period when a $60 billion, 395-year-old industry reared up on its hind legs and began to achieve the unthinkable: It recognized a disruptive technology early, accepted an unconventional business model, and seized a market position.